Saturday's UFC Main Card action continues from Las Vegas as we're set to bring you another prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Featherweight (145 lb) Division. Xtreme Couture's Julian Erosa will take on Mexico's Fernando Padilla as both men try to break into the rankings. Check out our UFC odds series for our Erosa-Padilla prediction and pick.
Julian Erosa is 28-10 as a professional fighter and has gone 6-6 in the UFC since earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. After a rocky 0-3 start to his career, Erosa has found his groove as of late and has won six of his last eight fights. Following a recent three-fight winning streak, Erosa lost his last bout to Alex Caceres in KO fashion. He'll look to bounce back against a young prospect making his debut. Erosa stands 6'1″ and has a 74.5-inch reach.
Fernando Padilla is 14-4 in his MMA career and will be making his UFC debut on Saturday's Main Card. He's had a number of exciting performances in various organizations and managed to go 3-1 during his time with LFA. At just 26 years old, Padilla will look to prove himself as a unique challenge to the rest of the Featherweight Division. He'll have a stiff test in Erosa for his first time out. Padilla stands 6'1″ and has a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Las Vegas Odds: Julian Erosa-Fernando Padilla Odds
Julian Erosa: -142
Fernando Padilla: +116
Over (2.5) rounds: +124
Under (2.5) rounds: -158
How to Watch Julian Erosa vs. Fernando Padilla
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Julian Erosa Will Win
Julian Erosa is turning the tide at this point of his career and has been able to dig deep, coming up with big wins in his recent fights. He has an extremely fundamental game and is exceptional of surviving through very bad points in the fight. If Erosa can survive until the second round, he begins to settle into his striking and can push a tremendous pace when opponents are tiring. He does a good job of mixing in his wrestling and loves to wear opponents on the cage. Erosa has been hit hard in the past, so he'll have to be cautious and defensive when exchanging with Padilla.
Erosa will win this fight if he can be a step ahead of Padilla in the offense. Fighting a veteran like Erosa in a debut is a tough task, so Erosa should look to be patient and force his kind of fight. He'll know exactly what to do in order to throw Padilla off, so don't be surprised if Erosa plays it safe early and lets Padilla empty his gas tank. If this fight gets scrappy by the second round, it'll only favor Erosa and his superior cardio.
Why Fernando Padilla Will Win
Fernando Padilla has a ton of physical tools that could help him mold into a lethal striker at this division. While he's still thin for his height, he has very good leverage behind his punches and can cause serious damage if he lands clean. If he sees Erosa leaving his chin up, Padilla should look to be aggressive in firing off combinations. He does a good job of mixing in kicks and could see some success from range with his calf kicks. Padilla can be wild at times and leaves himself open to getting caught. He'll have to be more precise and pick his shots carefully against a crafty guy like Erosa.
Padilla will have to remain calm in his debut outing if he wants to walk away with a victory. Debuting fighters are known to “adrenaline dump” early in the fight and gas out in later rounds. This is the worst possible scenario against a guy like Erosa who only becomes more dangerous as the fight wears on. Look for Padilla to keep a firm striking range here. If he can get the distance down, we should see some fun striking attacks from him.
Final Julia Erosa-Fernando Padilla Prediction & Pick
Fernando Padilla is a very solid prospect, but he's not getting any favors in having to face a guy like Julian Erosa in his debut. Still, Padilla should look to be aggressive as he's got the potential to land more damaging shots. However, the prediction here is that Erosa will drag this one out into the later rounds. If he's able to do so, he'll have the advantage with his cardio and wrestling – both essential for locking up late decision wins.
Final Julian Erosa-Fernando Padilla Prediction & Pick: Julian Erosa (-142); by Decision (+350)
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