The time has come and the UFC Main Event is finally here. The headlining fight will feature two of the top Batamweight fighters in the world in a huge matchup that has title-shot implications. Former Champion and No. 2-ranked “No Mercy” Petr Yan will go to war with Georgian wrestler and No. 3-ranked Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili. Don't miss a second of the action as this main event has all the makings of an instant classic! Check out our UFC odds series for our Yan-Dvalishvili prediction and pick.
Petr Yan is 16-4 in his professional career and has gone 8-3 in the UFC. After winning the belt in 2020, Yan went on to lose the strap when he illegally kneed Aljamain Sterling in the face. After winning the interim belt back over Cory Sandhagen, Yan went on to lose the rematch against Sterling and dropped a controversial decision to Sean O'Malley in his last fight. Many believe Petr Yan is still fit to be champ and has had a bad run of luck as he looks to earn another shot at the title with another big contender standing in his way. Petr Yan stands 5'7″ with a 67-inch reach.
Merab Dvalishvili is 15-4 in his career and has a UFC record of 8-2. He's won all of his six fight since 2020 and has been on a serious rise up the rankings. His dominant performances have him in line for a title shot and he'll mostly certainly earn an opportunity if he can beat a former champ in Yan. Dvalishvili won his last fight via unanimous decision against Jose Aldo. His fight with Yan will be a huge step up in competition for the title-hopeful. Dvalishvili stands 5'6″ with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Odds: Petr Yan-Merab Dvalishvili Odds
Petr Yan: -280
Merab Dvalishvili: +220
Over (4.5) rounds: -250
Under (4.5) rounds: +188
How to Watch Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET/ 3:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Petr Yan Will Win
Petr Yan showed during his title run that he is one of the best strikers on the planet, regardless of weight class. He has a traditional Muay Thai stance that he hones at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand and uses his creativity to add lethal variations on top of his fundamentals. He's a full arsenal of offense and can hurt opponents with his kicks as much as he can with his hands. He has tremendous speed in his hands and has a defensive guard that is extremely tough to break. Yan rarely gets hit from range, and he'll have a significant advantage in the striking against Dvalishvili. Yan will look for high head kicks and knees as Dvalishvili aggressively enters, leaving opportunities for shots to the body for him as well.
To win this fight, Yan will have to be more convincing in his striking that he has been his last two times out. He lent himself to a fire fight against Sean O'Malley that didn't look good to the judges. He'll want to do everything he can to prevent this one to going to a judge's decision as he's been burnt in the past. Yan can win this fight by landing damaging shots in the striking and knocking Merab down a few times. If he can get out to a lead on the scorecards early, Yan can do enough to point-fight and stuff takedowns en route to a victory.
Why Merab Dvalishvili Will Win
Perhaps no fighter lives up to their nickname quite like Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili. First off, he's in tremendous shape and is willing to fight for 10 rounds if the athletic commissions allowed for it. He strikes with a pressure pace and is even more suffocating with his chain wrestling. Dvalishvili does a great job of taking opponents down and keeping them down where he looks to land nasty ground-and-pound shots. His path to victory in the past has been his wrestling but against Yan's 90% takedown defense, he may have a harder time getting them than in previous contests.
To win this fight, Merab will have to grind down Yan for five rounds and do enough controlling on the ground to win in the eyes of the judges. He has a tremendous motor and will be the less-likely of the two fighters to tire out. If he can control Yan with his grappling and prevent him from landing too many shots, Dvalishvili has a real chance to dominate this fight from start to finish. We saw how well he performed against the striking of Jose Aldo, so look for him to continue improving his own hands and running his motor as high as ever in trying to take down Petr Yan.
Final Petr Yan-Merab Dvalishvili Prediction & Pick
This fight will be extremely close despite what the odds may indicate. While Yan is the more complete fighter with his takedown defense and striking, Dvalishvili is an animal and will relentlessly hunt the takedown until he's able to land just one. The longer this fight goes, the more it will favor the wrestling and cardio of Dvalishvili.
With the over being set at 4.5 rounds at -250, odds makers are suggesting this fight will go to a decision. If that's the case, judges will have a very difficult time scoring the striking of Yan and the wrestling of Dvalishvili. I'm going to lean ever so slightly towards the side of Petr Yan and take him in this fight. However, don't be surprised if Merab grinds out a tough decision here. For the first time, let's hedge our play and take DRAW as a potential outcome in this fight. I've got a funny feeling about this one…
Final Petr Yan-Merab Dvalishvili Prediction & Pick: Petr Yan (-280); Fight Outcome: Draw (+5000)
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