We're set to bring you another prediction and pick from UFC Vegas 79 in the UFC Apex. We turn our attention towards the Welterweight (170 lb) Division for this next bout as two veterans on losing skids try to get back on track. Tim “Dirty Bird” Means will square off against Portugal's Andre Fialho. Check out our UFC odds series for our Means-Fialho prediction and pick.
Tim Means (32-15-1) will come into this fight with a 14-12-1 UFC record dating back to 2012. After going on a nice run and winning four of five fights through 2019-21, Means has hit a downturn and suffered three consecutive losses leading up to this fight. While he lost a close split decision to Max Griffin, he was finished in the other two losses. He'll look for a much-needed win here. Means stands 6'2″ with a 75-inch reach.
Andre Fialho (16-7) comes into this fight with a 2-4 record in the UFC. Coming in as a dangerous prospect, Fialho managed wins in two of his first three fights under the UFC banner. Since then, however, he's lost his last three fights coming into this one and was TKO'd in all three of those. He'll be in a tough spot with his back against the wall as the betting favorite in this fight. Fialho stands 6'0″ with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 79 Odds: Tim Means-Andre Fialho Odds
Tim Means: +154
Andre Fialho: -200
Over 1.5 rounds: -142
Under 1.5 rounds: +112
How to Watch Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET/ 1:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Tim Means Will Win
Tim Means came into his last fight as a slight underdog and couldn't get anything going against Alex Morono. In the striking, he looked a step slow and couldn't fool Morono with his herky-jerky style. His movement could be a problem for Fialho in this fight, however, as his opponent tends to fight upright and plants his feet when striking. This could work in Means' favor as his movement around the octagon will tire Fialho in the later rounds. The more awkward Means can be with his looks in the striking, the better chance he'll have at grabbing this win as the underdog.
Of his last three losses, two have come by way of submission for Means. He won't have to worry much about getting submitted in this one as Fialho hardly likes to spend any time on the ground. Still, Means has a 44 percent takedown accuracy against Fialho's 60 percent defense and could ultimately see some success if he relentlessly attacks a takedown. Expect Means to resort to his wrestling and work Fialho against the cage to stifle his activity. The dirtier he can make this fight look, the better it'll fare for Means over three rounds.
Why Andre Fialho Will Win
Andre Fialho has all the tools to win many of his fights, but it seems as though he's had a hard time putting things together in his recent outings. He has tremendous power in his shots and can undoubtedly shut the lights out with 13 KO/TKO wins to his name. However, he's fallen victim to fighting through the motions and letting the fight go wherever it may be heading. To have success against Means, Fialho will have to execute a game plan and stick to it. Otherwise, he'll let Means control the pace in the striking and clinch on the cage when he wants to.
To win this fight, Andre Fialho should look to aggressively counter anytime Tim Means steps in for a combination. If he decides to chase Means around the octagon, he'll get tired and lose this fight up against the cage. However, if he can stay patient and let it rip to the body whenever Means gets too close, Fialho could easily be the guy landing the more damaging shots. If this turns into a phone-booth fight, you have to like Andre Fialho's chances with the heavier hands.
Final Tim Means-Andre Fialho Prediction & Pick
This fight is going to be very interesting with both guys basically fighting for their livelihoods in the UFC. Tim Means can easily win this fight if he lures Andre Fialho with his movement and wears on him against the cage. He's got the significant grappling advantage, so he should look to win this fight off of control time and dig the ground and pound once Fialho gets tired.
Andre Fialho will have to be aware that something's got to change if he wants to avoid a fourth-straight knockout loss. I expect him to be much more patient in this fight and let Means come to him. Expect Fialho to be landing the much more damaging shots. He'll have to get Means out of there early, though, as it'll only favor his opponent the longer they go. For our prediction, we'll take Andre Fialho to finish the fight and get the win by the thinnest of margins. This one could go either way.
Final Tim Means-Andre Fialho Prediction & Pick: Andre Fialho (-200); Wins by KO/TKO (+110)
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