The UFC Vegas 81 Main Card continues to roll on ESPN+ as we're set to bring you another prediction and pick for this next bout happening at a Catchweight of 130 pounds. Mexico's Edgar Chairez will face off against Brazil's Daniel Lacerda as both fighters rematch from their Draw at UFC Noche. Check out our UFC odds series for our Chairez-Lacerda prediction and pick.
Edgar Chairez (10-5) has gone 0-1-1 so far in his short time with the UFC. His debut came on short notice against Tatsuro Taira and while he performed well, it proved to be too big of a test too soon for Chairez. His subsequent fight, which took place less than a month ago at UFC Noche, was ruled a ‘No Contest' after referee Keith Peterson prematurely called the fight. Chairez was in clear control in that one, so it's no surprise he comes in as the big betting favorite. He stands 5'7″ with a 71-inch reach.
Daniel Lacerda (11-5) has gone 0-4-1 in the UFC since 2021 and is desperately searching for his first win under the promotion. His stint hasn't been too pretty and he's dropped fights to the likes of Victor Altamirano and CJ Vergara most recently. His last fight was stopped prematurely when the referee claimed to have seen Lacerda's arm go limp during a guillotine choke. However, upon the stoppage, Lacerda was fully conscious and the fight was ruled a ‘No Contest'. He'll have a chance to exact his revenge in this one. Lacerda stands 5'6″ with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 81 Odds: Edgar Chairez-Daniel Lacerda Odds
Edgar Chairez: -355
Daniel Lacerda: +270
Over 1.5 rounds: +150
Under 1.5 rounds: -195
How to Watch Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Edgar Chairez Will Win
Edgar Chairez comes into this rematch with the upper hand knowing he was seconds and inches away from securing the win over Daniel Lacerda. He certainly fooled Keith Peterson with how tight his choke was and he displayed a new wrinkle to his game in locking in the standing guillotine. He's a prototypical Mexican fighter and constantly marches forward with his crisp boxing combinations. He has very fast hands and will rip tight shots to the head and body. He's also a menace with his jab, so expect him to go back to what worked for him in the first meeting. While he still needs to improve on his defense a bit, he's extremely tough and doesn't seem too fazed when getting hit in the pocket.
Chairez matches up very well against Lacerda with his length, but the biggest difference is his patience when throwing strikes. Chairez won't force anything and will favor head movement over trying to land a big shot. We saw him have success in the first meeting as he was able to control the clinch situations as well. Chairez also seemed to have the strength advantage with his wiry frame, so expect him to try and grab a hold of Lacerda and control him along the fence.
Why Daniel Lacerda Will Win
Daniel Lacerda is typically a fighter defined by a “kill or be killed” type of fighting style. He throws caution to the wind and goes out throwing haymakers, hoping to end the fight as soon as possible and walk away with a win. Unfortunately, it hasn't worked in his favor and while he's always an exciting guy to watch, he'll clearly have to make some wholesale changes to his game if he wants to continue fighting for the UFC. Well, his last time out against Chairez, Lacerda came out extremely patient for once and let the fight come to him. He was faring well until he was caught in a standing guillotine, but the premature stoppage proved Lacerda still had a lot of fight left in him.
Daniel Lacerda will now have a better idea of what kind of looks Chairez will throw at him given their short time in the cage together already. He saw his more patient approach pay off to an extent, so he should look to come in with a similar mindset to this fight. Typically Lacerda is very sound when it comes to the grappling, but he'll have to be extra cautious this time around as Chairez may go for a similar type of finish. Still, if Lacerda can stay calm and clean during the striking exchanges and clinch, he could have a solid chance to upset in this fight.
Final Edgar Chairez-Daniel Lacerda Prediction & Pick
As far as the first meeting between these two goes, it was all Edgar Chairez all the way. He remained patient in the opening stages of the fight and only attacked when he saw the perfect opening. While we give the sizable edge to Edgar Chairez in this rematch, these betting odds ought to be a lot closer given the fact Daniel Lacerda wasn't really in too much danger when their last fight was stopped. For our prediction, let's go with Edgar Chairez to get the win as I expect this fight to hit the over as well.
Final Edgar Chairez-Daniel Lacerda Prediction & Pick: Edgar Chairez (-355); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+150)