The UFC is back in action from Las Vegas as we bring you a prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 82. This next bout was made on short-notice and will take place in the Middleweight (185) Division. England’s rising prospect Christian Leroy Duncan will take on last-minute fill-in Denis Tiuliulin of Russia. Check out our UFC odds series for our Duncan-Tiuliulin prediction and pick.

Christian Leroy Duncan (8-1) has gone 1-1 in his UFC career thus far. He’s a former undefeated Champion at Cage Warriors and he won his UFC debut after a knee injury to his opponent. His following fight was in London as he failed to do enough against Armen Petrosyan in front of him home crowd. Now, he looks for a chance to redeem himself against a short-notice opponent. Duncan stands 6’2″ with a 79-inch reach.

Denis Tiuliulin (11-8) has gone 1-3 in his UFC fights since 2022. His last bout was a TKO loss to Gregory Rodrigues just three months ago, so he’ll be in a serious spot to gain some momentum after dropping yet another fight. Nevertheless, he’s always good for an exciting performance and he’ll certainly have his back against the wall in this one. Tiuliulin stands 6’1″ with a 77-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 82 Odds: Christian Leroy Duncan-Denis Tiuliulin Odds

Christian Leroy Duncan: -470

Denis Tiuliulin: +360

Over 2.5 rounds: N/A

Under 2.5 rounds: N/A

How to Watch Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Denis Tiuliulin

TV: ESPN+

Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN

Time: 2:00 p.m. ET/ 11:00 a.m. PT (Prelims)

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Christian Leroy Duncan Will Win

Christian Leroy Duncan had high hopes in his last fight as he was performing in front of his home fans in London, England. He fought a stiff competitor in Armen Petrosyan and he failed to find his striking rhythm throughout that fight. Duncan is typically a patient striker that finds his shots with accuracy. He likes to manage distance and find openings, but the forward pressure and activity of Petrosyan prevented him from finding any success. He’ll have to dig his heels in and trade in the pocket if he wants to have a chance at winning this fight against a similar opponent to his last.

Duncan will be the much more technical striker in this matchup and should look to create distance with his leg kicks and reach in this fight. Tiuliulin does a great job of making fights look ugly, so Duncan will have to be diligent in separating himself and letting his offense go. His output suffered as his last fight went on, so he should focus on staying busy and keeping his hands going this time around. If he can manage the distance and get his own shots off, he should be able to stop this fight early.

Why Denis Tiuliulin Will Win

Denis Tiuliulin has been on a two-fight skid so far, but he hasn’t seen very easy competition in the UFC either. His last two losses have come to tough competition and while he’s just 1-3 to start his UFC tenure, he’s determined to step in on short notice and believes he can win this fight. Tiuliulin is a very tough pressure boxer and is almost always walking forward during his fights. While his hands aren’t the fastest, he throws them consistently and doesn’t let up on his pressure one bit. If he can back his opponent up against the fence, Tiuliulin will be quick to let his boxing combinations rip.

He’s taking this fight on less than a weeks notice, so it’s clear that Tiuliulin sees something in Duncan’s game that he can capitalize on. A fighter with a 1-3 record would typically want a full training camp before their next fight, but Tiuliulin realizes he needs to notch a win soon. If he can press forward and let his hands fly, he could see some success backing Duncan up against the fence. Duncan struggled when getting backed up in his last fight, so expect Tiuliulin to implement a similar game plan.

Final Christian Leroy Duncan-Denis Tiuliulin Prediction & Pick

Christian Leroy Duncan should come into this fight as the slight favorite due to his striking advantage, but we still have yet to see him open up his full striking skill set when fighting on the big stage. He’ll be more prepared ahead of this bout, but he’ll be facing a tough opponent with his back against the wall.

Denis Tiuliulin has a serious chance to win this fight if he can press forward and pressure Duncan into making mistakes. This fight will have to look ugly as Tiuliulin will try to negate any offense along the cage. It may not be the result everyone will be hoping for, but Denis Tiuliulin could wear this fight on and get the decision win. Let’s take him with the prediction as he poses a terrible matchup for Christian Leroy Duncan.

Final Christian Leroy Duncan-Denis Tiuliulin Prediction & Pick: Denis Tiuliulin (+360)