Kamaru Usman, once the undisputed king of the UFC welterweight division, is back in the headlines, not just for his return to the cage after a lengthy layoff, but for a media day declaration that has MMA fans and pundits shaking their heads in disbelief. At UFC Atlanta, Usman confidently outlined what he called a “pretty simple” plan: finish rising contender Joaquin Buckley, beat Islam Makhachev for the 170-pound belt, then move up to 185 and dethrone either Dricus du Plessis or Khamzat Chimaev. On paper, it’s a path to all-time greatness. In reality, it borders on delusion.

 Buckley is No Cakewalk for the Nigerian Nightmare

Let’s start with step one. Usman’s first obstacle is Joaquin Buckley, a surging welterweight now riding a six-fight win streak and coming off statement victories over the likes of Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, and Colby Covington. Buckley is undefeated at welterweight and has shown both knockout power and improved grappling attributes that make him a legitimate threat, not a stepping stone.

Usman, meanwhile, is 38 and hasn't had his hand raised since 2021. He’s riding a three-fight losing streak, including back-to-back losses to Leon Edwards and a competitive but ultimately unsuccessful short-notice middleweight bout against Khamzat Chimaev. While Usman’s legacy as an all-time great is secure, time and mileage are catching up. As UFC middleweight Andre Petroski bluntly put it, “Father Time’s undefeated… Buckley’s career is going this way [up] and Usman’s, unfortunately, is going down”.

The odds reflect this reality: Usman is a +230 underdog to Buckley’s -285 favorite status. For a fighter who hasn’t won in nearly three years, calling the Buckley fight “simple” is wishful thinking at best.

Makhachev at 170, The Lightweight King Is No Easy Target

Even if Usman defies the odds and beats Buckley, his next target is Islam Makhachev, the most decorated lightweight in UFC history who recently vacated his title to pursue gold at welterweight. Makhachev’s grappling is world-class, his striking is ever-improving, and he’s coming off dominant wins over Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski.

Usman may have the size advantage, but at this stage of his career, facing a prime, hungry Makhachev is anything but “simple.” The Dagestani’s relentless pressure and submission game have chewed up elite competition, and he’s already been verbally guaranteed the next title shot at 170. The notion that Usman can just waltz in, beat Buckley, and then outclass Makhachev, who has lost only once in 28 pro fights, is a fantasy.

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Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev Await

Usman’s plan doesn’t stop at reclaiming his old belt. He wants to vacate it and move up to middleweight to challenge either Dricus du Plessis or Khamzat Chimaev, depending on who holds the title. Both options are daunting.

Du Plessis is coming off a string of high-profile wins, including a submission of Israel Adesanya and a decision over Sean Strickland, and has shown an iron chin, relentless pace, and finishing ability. Chimaev, meanwhile, remains undefeated and recently submitted Robert Whittaker in the first round. Usman already lost a majority decision to Chimaev in 2023, and that was at a time when he was fresher and fighting up a weight class on short notice.

To suggest that Usman, now several years removed from his prime and with a body battered by years of championship wars, can simply move up and dethrone either of these monsters is, frankly, not grounded in the current MMA landscape.

Usman’s “Simple” Plan Is a Hallucination, Not a Comeback Blueprint

Kamaru Usman’s audacious roadmap is the stuff of Hollywood scripts, not real-world MMA. Each step, beating Buckley, dethroning Makhachev, and then capturing middleweight gold, would be a monumental achievement on its own. To string them together, at this stage of his career, is not just improbable; it’s borderline delusional.

Usman’s confidence is admirable, but the sport has moved on. The new generation is hungry, the competition is fiercer, and the margin for error is razor-thin. If Usman is to have any chance of a fairytale ending, it starts with a reality check—and a win over Buckley. Only then can he even begin to dream about the next mountain.

But for now, the only thing simple about Usman’s plan is how simply it can be dismantled by the harsh truth of MMA’s unforgiving present.