USF looks for their second conference win of the year as they face Navy. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a USF-Navy prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

USF enters the game at 2-2 on the season. They opened the season with a big loss to Western Kentucky. USF would struggle with the Western Kentucky passing attack as they fell 41-24. They would come back to beat Florida A&M. Then, they were heavy underdogs to Alabama. USF held in that game a lot longer than expected. They were ahead until Alabama hit a field goal to tie it going into the half. Then, it was just a one-score game until 33 seconds left in the game when Alabama scored to win 17-3. USF would use that momentum. USF took care of Rice 42-29 to take their first conference win of the year.

Meanwhile, Navy enters the game 1-2 on the year. It was an opening loss to Notre Dame in which they’ve never got their offense going.  They would rebound and take care of Wagner 24-0, but the offensive woes continued the next week. Navy took a first-quarter lead on Memphis and was tied at the half, but would fall 28-24 to go to 1-2 on the year.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: USF-Navy Odds

USF: +3.5 (-120)

Navy: -3.5 (-102)

Over: 54.5 (-110)

Under: 54.5 (-110)

How to Watch USF vs. Navy Week 5

TV: CBSSN

Stream: CBS Sports APP

Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why USF Will Cover The Spread

For USF it all starts with Byrum Brown. He has not been amazing this year but is coming off a great performance. In the game with RIce, he went 22-29 passing for 435 yards and two scored. He threw just one turnover-worthy pass while making three big-time throws according to PFF. Brown was protected great in the game. He was pressured just five times in the game, but he was sacked three times and scrambled away twice.

Further, Byrum Brown has been amazing on the ground today. He has 211 yards scrambling this year and another 237 yards in designed rushing this year. That had led to Brown scoring five times this year on the ground, but he has also fumbled four times. Meanwhile, Nay'Quan Wright has been solid out of the backfield. He is running for over four yards per carry while rushing 56 times this year. Wright has 236 yards on the season and a touchdown.

The defense will be stout against the run in this game to beat Navy. Jhalyn Shuler has been solid there. He has 16 tackles in the run game with 11 stops for offensive failures. He is averaging point of tackle 3.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and will need to be closer to the line in this game. Overall, USF has 57 stops for offensive failures this year and a fairly high success rate against the run.

They also need to worry about big plays when over-pursuing in the run. The pass coverage has not been great for USF this year. They have allowed 1,308 yards in four games this year, with 647 after the catch. While they do have three interceptions, they have also given up seven touchdowns through the air.

Why Navy Will Cover The Spread

For Navy, it will all start with Tai Lavatia. He is not a major passing threat but can make some big plays. He has passed for just 337 yards on the season with two touchdowns, but he also has only passed 38 times this year. He has done some work with his legs this year. He has 104 yards rushing on the ground while conducting the offense, still, he has yet to score this year.

The ground game is the hallmark of Navy offense. Alex Tecza leads the way this year. He has 25 rushes for 211 yards and a score. He is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, and only 2.92 of those are coming after first contact. Meanwhile, Daba Fofana has been solid as well. He has run for 143 yards this year and a score. He is averaging 4.25 yards per carry with 2.88 after contact.

The defense for Navy has been great this year overall. They have 41 stops for offensive failures this year on just 75 rushing attempts. Clay Cromwell leads the way there. He has ten tackles, all stops for offensive failures. He is stopping the run well, with an average point of tackle sitting at 1.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, they could be better against the pass. They have just 36 total pressures this year with only four sacks. Still, that is more than enough with how well they eat the clock on offense. As long as they slow down the big plays, they will be fine. They have done that this year in the passing game, with just one-third of the yards coming after the catch.

Final USF-Navy Prediction & Pick

The Midshipman of Navy is coming off a bye, which will be a huge help in this game. USF was not great on defense in their win over Rice, and while the score looks like they did amazing against Alabama, that was much more of Alabama hurting themselves. Navy does not make those mistakes. They are well-coached and do not make drive-ending mistakes regularly. There is a reason they are favored. Navy is better on offense overall, they are also better on defense.

In the game with Notre Dame, Navy missed a couple of massive plays that could have made it a close game. If they hit those in this game, this will be a blowout. USF will give Navy those opportunities, and with the spread being so low, they need just one play to hit. Navy has gotten that the last few weeks. They hit a few plays in the running game in this game while stopping a poor USF offense. Then, they hit one over the top to make this a big game for Navy. Navy puts up 30 in this game in an easy win. Take Navy in this one and lay the points.

Final USF-Navy Prediction & Pick: Navy -3.5 (-102)