Venezuela enters this game with confidence after their 2-1 tournament-opening win over Ecuador as a +390 underdog. Meanwhile, Jamaica joined them at the top of the group with three points after their 1-0 victory over Jamaica. The teams don’t have much prior experience against each other, with their last meeting coming in 2019 in a friendly. Mexico won that game 3-1. It is time to continue our Copa America odds series with a Venezuela-Mexico prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Venezuela looked like they’d be one of the tournament’s best after World Cup qualifying, but their results in three friendlies leading up to this tournament gave people some concerns. Venezuela lost 1-0 to Colombia in December and then lost a game to Italy in March before tying Guatemala. In hindsight, they might have wanted to schedule a friendly match to build momentum after those results, but March was their last game until the Ecuador matchup.

Mexico’s tournament got off to a tough start when their leading man, Edson Alvarez, left after the 30th minute with a hamstring injury. Mexico could have folded, especially after Jamaica scored in the 50th minute, but a favorable VAR review took the goal off the board and gave them a second chance. Mexico began an onslaught to get on the board, finished by Gerardo Arteaga in the 69th minute to bring Mexico the 1-0 victory.

Here are the 2024 Copa America odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Copa America Odds: Venezuela-Mexico Odds

Venezuela: +250

Mexico: +115

Draw: +220

Over 2.5 goals: +125

Under 2.5 goals: -165

How to Watch Venezuela vs. Mexico

Time: 9 PM ET/6 PM PT

TV: FS1, TSN

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Venezuela Will Win

Regardless of the circumstances, Venezuela has to be riding high after their win over Ecuador. They’ve also looked great under their new manager, Fernando Batista. The Venezuelans have lost just one of their seven competitive matches under Batista and two of 13 overall. The match against Mexico will be their toughest test under Batista, but Mexico’s chances dropped with the injury to Alvarez.

Why Mexico Will Win

Mexico was dealt a bad hand when their captain went down with 60 minutes remaining in their first match, which is hard to adjust to on the fly. They had four days to re-imagine their squad without Alvarez, and it isn’t like Mexico fell without their captain.

Mexico is getting docked points for that win over Jamaica, but it may have been more impressive than disappointing. Jamaica is also a much better team than the oddsmakers credit them for in this group.

Mexico and Venezuela’s results in the first games and the loss of Alvarez have lowered Mexico’s odds substantially in this matchup, but you need to target them here before they show the odds are wrong.

Final Venezuela-Mexico Prediction & Pick

The oddsmakers are severely overvaluing Venezuela’s win over Ecuador. Venezuela was a +390 underdog against Ecuador, played against them with a one-man advantage for over 70 minutes, and barely won. The man who left the game was Ecuador’s captain, who has 41 career international goals. Venezuela is now +250 to beat a better Mexico team. Mexico playing without their captain is concerning, but they looked fine against a Jamaica team that has given trouble to some of Copa America’s best teams.

Getting Mexico at plus-money against Venezuela is a chance we have to take, and hope that Mexico has a plan for life without Alvarez.

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Final Venezuela-Mexico Prediction & Pick: Mexico ML (+115)