One game doesn't make a season, and the Golden State Warriors were in prime position to take down Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns on opening night even without Draymond Green.
How many more times will the Dubs go 10-of-43 from beyond the arc, with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combining for 25% three-point shooting while Chris Paul and Andrew Wiggins miss all nine of their total attempts? Jonathan Kuminga clanked a pair at the free throw line with 1:32 left, too, squandering the chance to give the Warriors a late-game lead.
Golden State was very close to pulling out a win over Phoenix on Tuesday without its second-most impactful player, no small feat even as the Suns missed Bradley Beal. There were plenty of encouraging signs for the Warriors in the season-opener. If process matters more than results for veteran teams with title aspirations right now, go ahead and chalk up a moral victory for Steve Kerr's club.
That optimistic perspective in mind, here are the three bold Warriors predictions for the 2023-24 season following their opening night loss to the Suns.
Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody emerge as impact players
Kuminga's all-around growth was obvious during the preseason, when he was Golden State's best player and one of the league's top scorers while embracing the little things—committing to rebounding and running the floor in transition, first and foremost—that prevented him from being a permanent part of Kerr's rotation a year ago. He wasn't quite so dynamic against Phoenix, at times driving into crowds and taking ill-advised shots.
But Kuminga was the Dubs' second-best on-ball defender against Phoenix, especially disruptive checking Kevin Durant one-on-one. He also finished with six rebounds, consistently throwing his body into the fray, and made the most of his opportunities in the open floor. This two-way sequence is pretty much all the Dubs really need from Kuminga this season, coupled with good decision-making offensively.
Moody was at least as good as Kuminga vs. the Suns, if not better. He'll never be confused for a one-on-one stopper, lacking the suddenness and lateral mobility to regularly contain dynamic ball handlers and fight over the top of screens without falling behind.
The 21-year-old's instincts as a help defender are beyond his years, though, and Moody was as aggressive looking for his shot and self-created offense on Tuesday as he's ever been with the Warriors. This was one of his two steals as the low man in pick-and-roll defense; the transition finish is just icing on the cake.
Golden State won't win the title in 2023-24 unless Curry remains a top-five player in the world, Wiggins re-emerges as one of the game's best two-way wings and Green and Thompson keep doing what they do best. But that ceiling is also highly unlikely to be reached unless Kuminga and Moody cement themselves as impact rotation players for the Dubs. So far, so good.
Warriors finish top-half in turnover rate
Golden State finished second-to-last in turnover rate last season, coughing up the ball on 15.8% of its possessions—a share lower than only the laughably disorganized Houston Rockets'. The Warriors were also 29th in turnover percentage in 2021-22, and 24th the season before that. There's only been one season during the Kerr era, in fact, when they ranked top-half of the league in turnover rate: 2014-15, when the Dubs tipped off the dynasty by winning their championship in 40 years.
The unique read-and-react style Golden State plays naturally lends itself to miscues, and Curry and Green have never been too concerned about taking care of the basketball, preferring to embrace freedom and creativity as their team's top playmakers. Maybe those old dogs don't learn new tricks this season. Even so, the addition of an ever-steady table-setter like Paul and the Warriors reconfiguring parts of the offense around him could be all they need to finally buck the trend of being one of the most turnover-prone teams in basketball.
Golden State committed just 11 turnovers against Phoenix, five of them coming in the fourth quarter. Paul, shocker, had just one turnover in what's bound to be one of his highest-usage and highest-minute games of the season. Playing with him should curb Curry and Green's tendency for giveaways, too, as they spend more time away from the ball, warping defenses by sprinting around screens and creating advantages for teammates with perfectly angled picks, respectively.
Going from bottom-two to top-15 in turnover rate would be a massive step for the Warriors. Based on the season opener, swapping Jordan Poole for Paul and the ongoing maturation of Kuminga and Moody, though, it's one that seems entirely plausible.
Golden State's closing five is fluid throughout 2023-24
Much has been made leading up to the regular season about who will be starting for the Warriors. That's still not perfectly clear with Green sidelined, but all momentum suggests Golden State will eventually revert back to the lineup that was basketball's best five-man unit a year ago, bringing Paul off the bench to run the second unit. Kerr and company were hinting at that likelihood throughout training camp, then Paul started on the bench for the team's fourth preseason game, the Dubs wary of the Point God trying too hard to “fit in” alongside Curry and Thompson rather than continue embracing the style that's made him a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame.
The truth is that it doesn't really matter who starts for the Warriors. Who finishes close games is far more significant, and the opener proved that's likely to remain a fluid situation across the 82-game grind. Go ahead and write down Curry and Green in ink as members of Golden State's closing five. Thompson's, too, as long as he's not trying to shoot his way through an off night when the game hangs in the balance.
Wiggins has been a foregone conclusion as part of that group since joining the Warriors, but was benched down the stretch on Tuesday in favor Kuminga. Even if Wiggins soon shakes off the rust, as Kerr anticipates, there's still a chance either Kuminga or Moody could be a part-time member of the closing five. Paul will obviously factor in there, too, and Golden State will need to keep Looney on the floor against superstar centers or teams that dominate the glass. Gary Payton II will surely get his chance to hound the game's most dynamic ball handlers in crunch-time, too.
The Dubs' uncertain closing lineup is a good problem to have. Expect Kerr to tinker with different combinations throughout the season based on opposing personnel, who's playing well any given night and circumstances of time and score.
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