Few teams are continuously discounted yearly like the Tampa Bay Rays. On paper, the Rays never seem like an elite squad, yet they have five straight playoff appearances and three 90-win seasons in the last four full years.
This year is no different. The club traded ace Tyler Glasnow to the Rays while superstar shortstop Wander Franco is sidelined indefinitely with legal issues. Tampa is projected to win between 84 and 86 games this year — a total that history suggests the club will surpass. After coming off an impressive 99-win campaign, here is why the Tampa Bay Rays will win the 2024 World Series.
Top-10 farm system steps up at the MLB level
After spending all of last year in the top 10, the Tampa Bay Rays farm system once again ranks as one of the best in baseball, coming in at sixth among 30 MLB clubs. The team is especially deep in the infield, with each of their top five prospects playing one on the dirt.
Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero are expected to be contributors this year. Mead is an exceptional contact hitter who can play through the infield, while Caminero hit 31 homers across two minor league levels in 2023. The latter figures to fit in on the left side of the infield. Harold Ramirez and Isaac Paredes had breakout years last season while Yandy Diaz had a breakthrough year as he became an MVP candidate — showcasing the club's ability to develop talented infielders.
If the duo of Mead and Caminero can step up and fill the offensive hole left by Luke Raley and Manuel Margot — not to mention replacing All-Star shortstop Wander Francos — the Rays will remain near the top of the American League East.
Starting pitching holds up through early-season injury absences
Tyler Glasnow is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Shane McClanahan is out for the year, while Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both begin the season on the IL. That means four of the Rays' best five starting pitchers from a year ago will not be on the mound to start the 2024 season. Zach Eflin is the clear ace for Tampa to begin the year, but after him are numerous volatile options.
Aaron Civale had a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts with the Cleveland Guardians to open last year, only to see his ERA rise three points in 10 starts with the Rays. Zach Littell has 18 career starts versus 155 relief appearances. The lowly Detroit Tigers released long reliever Tyler Alexander in the offseason and he currently slots in as TB's fourth starter. 26-year-old Ryan Pepiot has the most upside among the potential starters. Acquired in the Glasnow trade, Pepiot has a 2.76 ERA across 78.1 innings pitched with the Dodgers.
This group is not particularly inspiring, but no team gets more out of its pitchers than the Tampa Bay Rays. If the club can stay afloat until, Rasmussen, Springs, and Taj Bradley return, the Rays will be a scary sight for the rest of the American League.
High-leverage relievers learn from recent struggles
Despite boasting one of the best bullpens in Major League Baseball in recent years, the Rays have struggled in high-leverage situations. Tampa was 27th in save percentage in 2022 and 20th last year. Pete Fairbanks was 25-29 in save opportunities but the rest of the relief corps barely converted more than 40% of its save chances. Considering the Rays lost the AL East by just two games, even closing out games at a 63% clip (league average) is a four-win improvement.
This year's bullpen looks largely similar to last year, except for swapping out Phil Maton for Andrew Kittredge. If Fairbanks can step up as a lockdown closer and the likes of Jason Adams and Colin Poche can perform under pressure, then the Rays will be able to get rid of the late-game issues that have plagued them.
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