As the 2025 WNBA Playoffs approach, the New York Liberty enter the postseason as one of the league’s most compelling squads. Coming out of 2024 as WNBA champions and maintaining a core lineup filled with All-Star talent, the Liberty approached this campaign poised for another deep playoff run. A first-round showdown with the reloaded Phoenix Mercury is their first challenge after a rough few weeks to close out the regular season.
The Liberty's 2025 regular season was defined by highs and lows. They retained the championship-caliber nucleus of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones, while adding complementary pieces like Natasha Cloud and international standouts Leonie Fiebich, Marine Johannes, and Emma Meesseman. The loss of Betnijah Laney-Hamilton due to a knee injury did create a hurdle in their wing depth, but when healthy, the Liberty’s overall roster remains among the league’s most dangerous.
Offensively, they've mostly been prolific, ranking in the top three in most scoring and efficiency categories, and their defensive scheme improved over the season. But questions linger about consistency, rebounding, resilience, and execution in high-pressure moments.
Across the court, the Mercury arrive at the playoffs with a dramatically different look to their team. Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper have transformed the Mercury into a fast-paced, physically dominant team capable of wearing down opponents. Thomas brings elite assisting and playmaking, Sabally offers two-way versatility, and Copper injects energy and scoring. Phoenix's starting lineup can hang with anyone in the league, but the bench production and overall cohesion remain untested by playoff intensity.
With these narratives converging, the first-round matchup between New York and Phoenix doesn't only promise fireworks — it's also a window into the evolving landscape of the WNBA. Now, let's look at six top predictions for the Liberty's 2025 postseason run and see what this postseason might mean for the trajectory of this star-studded New York team.
1. Liberty will steal a road game in Phoenix
In the opening round, the Liberty will come out of the gate wanting to assert their dominance over the Mercury. Although Phoenix’s frontcourt trio of Thomas, Sabally, and Copper can present matchup nightmares, New York's superior depth, championship experience, and offensive versatility will prove decisive. Game 1 on the road will set the tone for the Liberty's title defense run, so expect a focused and aggressive team to seize control early and never look back. New York's ability to execute in clutch situations and get critical stops at home in Game 2 should allow them to close the series without needing a Game 3.
The Liberty can dictate the pace using Ionescu’s transition play, Stewart’s perimeter shooting, and Jones’s interior presence, forcing the Mercury into reactive defensive sets. Phoenix has enough firepower to make runs, but the lack of long-term proven bench chemistry and potential foul trouble will prevent the team from sustaining pressure over four quarters. If New York can maintain its balance, the team will be able to overwhelm the Mercury down the stretch.
2. Jonquel Jones will win the interior battle against Satou Sabally
Phoenix's frontcourt boasts size and versatility, but Jones will rise to the occasion for New York. Her combination of length, playmaking, confidence in shooting from distance, and touch around the basket makes her a matchup problem, even for elite defenders like Sabally, Thomas, or DeWanna Bonner. Expect to see Jones average a double-double for the series with at least one breakout performance in which she carries the offense to victory.
Defensively, Jones' mobility will allow her to contain drives and switch onto Sabally when needed. She will play a vital role in limiting the Mercury's second-chance opportunities and anchoring the Liberty's interior defense. Jones' presence will tilt the rebounding battle in New York’s favor, which will be key to securing two games.
3. New York's bench will outperform Phoenix's at least once
The Mercury's bench, as mentioned earlier, remains unproven, and the Liberty’s supporting cast is loaded with contributors capable of stepping up. Fiebich could emerge as an important second-unit piece, using her length and awareness to disrupt Phoenix’s wings. She may even post a surprise double-digit rebound game or a block-filled performance that changes momentum.
Meanwhile, Johannes will provide instant offense off the bench, particularly if Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello opts for smaller, more dynamic lineups. Her ability to hit contested threes and facilitate under pressure will make her invaluable when Ionescu or Cloud rest. Cloud herself may often be under the radar offensively, but she will stabilize the second unit with leadership, timely passing, and perimeter defense.
If the Liberty aim to sweep Phoenix, they will need one game where their bench thoroughly outperforms the Mercury’s, and that’s exactly what will happen by Game 2.
4. Mercury will be a bigger challenge than the Liberty expect
Despite the Liberty’s advantages, Phoenix will not go quietly. In at least one game, the Mercury’s star trio will push the Liberty to the brink. Thomas' relentlessness on both sides of the court and Sabally’s scoring versatility will generate multiple scoring runs. Copper can ignite in transition and hit timely jumpers, but Phoenix’s inability to keep up the defensive discipline or match New York’s depth in crunch time will end up being the squad's undoing.
The Liberty’s poise and experience from their 2024 title run will shine brightest in these moments. Whether it’s a clutch Ionescu three, a Stewart block, or a game-saving rotation by Jones, New York will deliver the plays that Phoenix simply can't. A win will close out the series and send the Liberty to the next round.
5. Liberty will ride momentum from this round to WNBA Finals
A dominant first-round series will give the Liberty their full confidence back and propel them through the rest of the playoffs. With their core clicking, Stewart back to MVP form, and Ionescu healthy and peaking at the right time, the Liberty could set the stage to advance to the WNBA Finals for the second consecutive season. Along the way, the Liberty will have to dispatch the Mercury and whoever they face in the second round, revealing how much resilience and adaptability they can muster under pressure.
If they reach the Finals, the Liberty's opponent will offer stiff resistance. Still, their firepower and playoff maturity give them a strong chance to repeat as champions. If Stewart continues her dominance and Jones controls the paint, a back-to-back title is not just possible, it’s probable.
6. Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart will start building their Finals MVP campaign
Ionescu has been a superstar for several campaigns, but this series will mark her official arrival as one of the league’s most dominant postseason performers. A healthy Ionescu could step up to lead the Liberty in both scoring and tempo. Her ability to stretch the floor with deep three-point shooting, combined with her aggression when attacking the rim, will create mismatches that the Mercury can't consistently contain.
Ionescu will most likely have at least one game where she catches fire from beyond the arc. If Phoenix attempts to switch or trap her on high screens, her court vision and chemistry with Stewart and Jones will burn them with seemingly easy buckets. The Oregon alum's confidence and control can be the motor that drives New York through the first round and into the deeper playoff waters.
Meanwhile, Stewart has reestablished herself as a multidimensional scoring threat. Her improved spacing will force Phoenix’s bigs to defend far from the basket, opening up interior opportunities for Jones and Ionescu’s drives. When Stewart is connecting from long range, the Liberty’s offense becomes nearly unguardable.
The Mercury may experiment with zone coverage or man-to-man, but Stewart’s quick release and ability to shoot while moving will punish any offense. Her three-point resurgence will be one of the series’ defining features and an indicator of what's to come for other teams in later rounds.
This postseason could cement Ionescu and Stewart as contenders for Finals MVP if New York wins it all. Even if the Liberty fall short, their leadership and elite two-way impact will remind everyone why they're some of the best to ever play for the franchise. Cloud also deserves credit for her on-court leadership and ability to quarterback the second unit. She'll be an underrated threat that makes a loud difference. Even if she doesn't fill up the box score, her presence will be felt in closeout moments and defensive stops.
The Liberty are no longer a team of potential — they're a team of legacy. Their first-round matchup with the Mercury is a chance to reassert dominance, shake off rust from the end of the regular season, and begin their march back to the WNBA Finals. With Ionescu ready to break out, Stewart rediscovering her range, Jones owning the paint, and a whole roster of role players ready to step up, the Liberty are poised for another historic run.
Taking care of the Mercury will send a message to the rest of the league that the Liberty are not just here to compete, they’re here to take over yet again. If they play to their full potential, there’s little doubt they can hoist the trophy at the end of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs.
