The New York Yankees look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead as they visit the Cleveland Guardians for game three of the American League Championship Series. Below we will continue our ALCS odds series with a Yankees-Guardians prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Yankees-Guardians Game 3 Projected Starters
Clarke Schmidt vs. Matthew Boyd
Clarke Schmidt (5-5) with a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 85.1 innings pitched, 93K/30BB, .230 oBA
Last Start: at Kansas City Royals ALDS: 4.2 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 8 games, 1.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 45.1 innings pitched, 46K/17BB, .211 oBA
Matthew Boyd (2-2) with a 2.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 39.2 innings pitched, 46K/13BB, .213 oBA
Last Start: vs. Detroit Tigers ALDS: 2 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 4 starts, 2.25 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 20 innings pitched, 23K/4BB, .205 oBA
Here are the Yankees-Guardians ALCS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
ALCS Odds: Yankees-Guardians Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -112
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 7.5 (+102)
Under: 7.5 (-124)
How to Watch Yankees vs. Guardians Game 3
Time: 5:08 PM ET/2:08 PM PT
TV: TBS, TruTV
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
Clarke Schmidt threw well against the Royals in the ALDS, and he should be able to have a similar game in this one. Schmidt had better numbers on the road in the regular season, as well. Including the postseason, Schmidt has allowed just three earned runs through 14.1 innings pitched in his last three road starts. The Guardians have struggled to score this series, so he should be able to keep them under three runs. If he can do that, the Yankees will score.
The good news for the Yankees is Schmidt does not have to go deep into the game. Five strong innings will be enough for the Yankees to win the game. This is because their bullpen has been lights out in the postseason. New York's relievers have allowed just two earned runs over 21.2 innings pitched in the postseason. Luke Weaver has been especially good as their closer. If the Yankees bullpen is given the lead late in the game, they are going to win.
New York has hit the ball well against the Guardians. They have scored 11 total runs in the two games, and seven of their hits have gone for extra bases. Three of those have left the yard. Now, it is a little harder to hit home runs at Progressive Field than Yankee Stadium, but New York should be able to do some damage nonetheless. If they continue to hit as they have been, the Yankees will take a three-game advantage in the ALCS.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have been shut down for the most part at the plate this series. They really need Matthew Boyd to have a strong start if they want to win. Luckily, Boyd has been light out in the playoffs. Against the Tigers in the ALDS, Boyd threw 6.2 innings, allowed five hits, no runs, walked three, and he struck out 10 batters. Boyd needs to go five or six strong innings if the Guardians want a chance to win this game.
Cleveland is not hitting all that badly in this series. They have 14 hits in the two games, but they can not seem to push any runs across. Take away Lane Thomas and David Fry and the Guardians are batting just .139 with runners in scoring position this postseason as a whole. If the Guardians can get better at-bats from players like Josh Naylor or Jose Ramirez in those situations, they will be able to win the game.
Final Yankees-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Expect Cleveland to come out with some extra fire in this game. However, I think the Yankees are just too much for them to handle. I will take the Yankees to win this game straight up.
Final Yankees-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Yankees ML (-112)