Heading into the 2022-23 NBA season, the Phoenix Suns starting lineup is pretty well locked in. Suns players like Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges aren’t going anywhere (if healthy). That leaves one starting spot up for grabs heading into the new league year. Last season, forward Jae Crowder started all 67 games he played in. This year, Crowder is currently penciled in to start again. However, there is an argument that Cameron Johnson should start for the team this year, and he can prove it in the Suns training camp.

Should it be Jae Crowder or Cameron Johnson in the Suns starting lineup?

It’s no secret that the Phoenix Suns have big expectations this season. Chris Paul will be 38 by the time the playoffs start and only has two guaranteed seasons left on his contract. And this season, the Suns will play Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges $114.1 million combined.

These Suns players went to the NBA Finals two seasons ago. But last year was disappointing. The Dallas Mavericks upset the Western Conference No. 1 seed in the second round, so now it is back to the drawing board for head coach Monty Williams.

On a team that is almost impossible to shake up with Suns players’ current contract situations, Williams does have one lever to pull. He can replace Jae Crowder in the starting lineup with Cameron Johnson.

Crowder and Johnson played roughly the same amount of minutes last season, with Crowder averaging 28.1 and Johnson 26.2. With a similar amount of time on the court, Johnson’s offensive number far outpaced Crowder’s.

Jonson shot better from 3-point range (42.5% vs. 32.8%), 2-point range (52.3% vs. 50.3%), the free throw line (86% vs. 78.9%), and averaged 12.5 points per game to Crowder’s 9.4. Johnson also had slightly fewer turnovers (0.7 vs. 0.8) last year.

The argument for Crowder to stay in the Suns starting lineup this season is that he is the better defensive player, rebounder, and ball-mover. Crowder averaged 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.4 blocks last season, while Johnson has 4.1, 1.5, 0.9, and 0.2 in those categories.

The per 36 and per 100 possession stats back all these numbers up, but the advanced stats get interesting.

What these statistics say is that Jae Crowder is a bigger liability for the Suns offense than Cameron Johnson is to the Suns defense. Johnson’s PER is 15.2 to Crowder’s 11.3. Also, Crowder has a defensive box plus/minus of 2.4 and an offensive box plus/minus of -1.3, for a total BPM of 1.1. On the other side, Johnson comes in at 0.7 and 2.0 for a total BPM of 2.7.

To put the best and most efficient Suns starting lineup out on the floor, Monty Williams probably should start Cameron Johnson over Jae Crowder.

Despite this fact, Suns fans might say that Crowder is a veteran team leader and should start the game on the floor. They may also point out that Johnson as the sixth man makes sense because he can lead the team’s second unit in scoring while the other starters take their rests.

This is all true, but it’s not a strong enough argument to determine that Johnson shouldn’t take Crowder’s job in Suns training camp.

That’s because the other thing to consider is that the Suns lost to the Mavericks last season, in large part, because they couldn’t keep everyone healthy.

Jae Crowder is 32 years old now and entering his 11th NBA season. He’s played 735 NBA games and 18,562 minutes in his career. That’s a lot of mileage, especially for a player who also did four years in college at South Georgia Tech, Howard, and Marquette.

Cameron Johnson is just 26 years old with 183 games and 4,442 NBA minutes under his belt. Like Crowder, Johnson came into the league later (23) after stops at multiple colleges (Pitt and North Carolina), but the difference in wear and tear at this point is tremendous.

Maybe Crowder does fit better in the Suns starting lineup. Even if so, it would be wise for Monty Williams to consider putting Johnson in the starting lineup out of Suns training camp. Not only does Johnson have more upside and possibly give the Suns top lineup a more dynamic look, but he also can save Crowder from getting beat up early in the season.

Later in the year, if Crowder’s defense, rebounding, and assist totals truly are better for the Suns against top competition, it will be easy to slide him back to that No. 1 power forward sport and return Johnson to his sixth man role.

We’ll see what Williams decides during Suns training camp, but Jae Crowder isn’t just the most likely player to lose his job in the Suns starting lineup. He’s the only player that possibly could if everyone is healthy.