One of the key components of the Miami Heat and their historic run, Bam Adebayo will be looking to make his presence to be felt in these 2023 NBA Finals! Join us for our NBA odds series where our Bam Adebayo series points average prediction and pick will be made.
There is no doubt that Bam Adebayo's offensive presence will need to be felt in a big way as the Miami Heat will be squaring off with one of the top offenses that the league has to offer in the Denver Nuggets. At the moment, Adebayo's series point average line sits at 16.5 points. Can Adebayo provide the perfect one-two punch to Jimmy Butler and the Cinderella story Miami Heat?
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-Nets Odds
Bam Adebayo Over: 16.5 (-113)
Bam Adebayo Under 16.5 (-113)
Why Bam Adebayo Could Hit The Over
Without a doubt, the Miami Heat will not be able to win their first NBA Championship since 2013 if Bam Adebayo does not contribute on offense in some way or another. Throughout these playoffs, Adebayo is averaging 16.8 points per game and has become the clear-cut number two option whenever the Heat possess the ball on offense. Indeed, the Nuggets' interior defense isn't one of the league's best units with no clear shot-blocking presence, so Adebayo will have to establish his dominance from within the paint from the get-go.
For starters, if Adebayo can return to his scoring form from the regular season in which he averaged 20.4 PPG, then hitting the over will be a walk in the park for the Miami Heat big man. Even though Adebayo has looked like a shell of himself during his last five games, let's not forget that Bam did score more than 16.5 points in the six games before that.
At this point in time, Bam will also need to get off to a quick start in the opening game of the NBA Finals to establish himself with some much-needed confidence in his shot. If Adebayo sees his first few shots fall, then I believe that will ultimately set the tone for the rest of the series.
Why Bam Adebayo Could Hit The Under
For starters, bettors who are planning on betting that Adebayo does not average at least 17 points per game should feel pretty good with the fact that the 6'9″ center has hit the under in points within his previous five playoff games combined. In fact, Adebayo has not scored at least 17 points since he dropped a lethal 22 in Game 2 against the Celtics. If there is anything to be concerned with Bam about in the scoring department, it is the fact that he has no presence whatsoever from beyond the arc.
Believe it or not, Adebayo has only attempted two threes in this postseason and has missed on both. During the season, Adebayo shot an abysmal 8% from downtown as that is simply not where is game lies. While many people like to point out that Nikola Jokic's defense is his Achille's heel, it will still be an uphill battle to score 17 points in the paint with the much-taller two-time MVP matched up with him each time down the floor.
Of course, Adebayo also enters these NBA Finals shooting under 50% in his last two games, and seems to be trending negatively as Game 1 lingers on this Thursday evening. Even more so, the Heat are coming off far less rest than the Nuggets who just spent nine days sleeping in their own beds. After playing 46 and 43 minutes in Game 6 and 7 versus Boston, the altitude could get to Adebayo in the opening contests of this series which doesn't bode well for Bam's chances of hitting the over on points.
Final Bam Adebayo Series Points Average Prediction
Simply put, it is hard to imagine that Adebayo has enough fireworks in his offensive firepower to consistently score in this series. Although he is capable of being a dependable scorer for this Heat squad, he will struggle in this series to get open looks.
Final Bam Adebayo Series Points Average Prediction: Under 16.5 (-113)