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If we’re going to talk completion statistics, and make that the sole basis for argument, then it’s settled. Washington Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels is better than Tom the GOAT. But if we’re going to have a reasoned discussion, here are three reasons why Daniels isn’t the MVP frontrunner through four games of the 2024 NFL season.
The easiest place to start is the sheer lack of evidence. No player ever earned the most valuable player award in four games. Ever. In fact, just talking about who will win the MVP in September is, well, silly.
But let’s do it anyway!
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels off to incredible start, but …
As stated, if you want stats, Daniels has them by the bucket full. He has completed 82.1% of his passes. It’s the highest percentage by any player during a four-game stretch (with a minimum of 100 pass attempts) at any point in their career since at least 1950, per NFL+ via The Athletic's Ben Standig. Yes, better than even Tom the GOAT.
Also, Daniels completed 35 passes in a row under 15 air yards over multiple games. According to NFL Next Gen stats, he had only a 0.02% chance of pulling off that feat. Yes, he has been great.
But has he been all that productive for the Commanders? Not really. He’s keeping drives alive, for sure. And yes, that’s leading to points. But when it comes to pay off, he only has three touchdown passes in four games. Put that in perspective. That means 16 or fewer scoring passes for the whole season. MVP? No way.
What about his running? He has carried 46 times for 218 yards.That’s an average of 4.7 per carry, which is OK but not tremendous. He does have four touchdown runs, which is very good this early in the season. But it’s highly unlikely he’ll sustain that pace.
Still, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn is enjoying the start, especially how he played in the blowout win over the Cardinals, according to a post on X by @nbc4sports.
“I told him I was really proud of him,” Quinn said. “I just thought he handled it like a real G. Just stayed steady all the way through in terms of the preparation. All the way through the week, putting in the extra time. I think that speaks to their preparation.”
It’s a great start for Daniels, but even the good numbers don’t add up to even being in the MVP conversation.
WR Terry McLaurin’s numbers have taken a dip with Daniels at QB
To be sure, MVP candidates don’t bring down the team’s best players. Think about what Aaron Rodgers did for Davante Adams. He lifted him. Turned Adams into a household.
Look at Patrick Mahomes. What did he do for Tyreek Hill? Don’t buy that nonsense that Hill carried Mahomes. Ridiculous.
But what has Daniels done to Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin. Through four games, McLaurin has the worst numbers of his career. And this is a guy who entered the year with four straight 75-plus-catch, 1,000-yard seasons. And McLaurin racked up these numbers with questionable, and sometimes flat-out awful, play at the quarterback position. So here comes an MVP candidate, and suddenly McLaurin declines?
In his first two games, McLaurin caught eight passes for 39 yards. He bounced back with four catches for 100 yards against Cincinnati, but had only 52 yards against the Cardinals.
To his credit, McLaurin has supported Daniels, according to washingtonpost.com.
“I think he’s really confident in what he’s seeing,” McLaurin said. “I think his preparation is very unique for a guy who just got into the league. The way he attacks practice, the way he’s starting to conduct the film sessions at the end of the week for the receivers and the tight ends and stuff, it’s not a surprise when he goes out there and he executes at a high level.”
MVPs come from NFL royalty
Let’s go back to 1987. That’s far enough, I think. It’s a long list of quarterbacks, so perhaps that would weigh in Daniels’ favor. John Elway, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady. Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson.
But it’s not just the quarterback position. It’s having the pedigree. It’s establishing great play, and then earning an MVP award.
Unless you’re Patrick Mahomes. He won in 2018 in his first season as a starter. And while he had no resume, he still wasn’t a rookie as he played one game in 2017.
But if the discussion enters the realm of comparing Daniels to Mahomes, then we’ll have to leave the realm of common sense into crazy town.
For sure, Daniels is good. From everything he’s shown so far, Daniels is a special talent. After four games it looks like he’s going to be pretty good. But he’s not the MVP. He’s not an NFL MVP candidate. He may be the Commanders' MVP.
Let’s see him do something against the Cowboys’ defense, or complete 75% against the Ravens. Let’s see what he does Sunday against the Browns and Myles Garrett. Yes, he has way too much to prove to be an MVP candidate.
