The New York Knicks and Miami Heat are reviving their rivalry from the late 1990s in the second round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. The Knicks usually got the better of the Heat, eliminating Miami from the playoffs three times from 1997-2000. The renewed Knicks-Heat rivalry should have a similar ending this time around.
Both teams only needed five games to pull off first-round upsets. Jalen Brunson outplayed Donovan Mitchell as the Knicks beat the Cleveland Cavaliers. Jimmy Butler engineered a pair of shocking comebacks in Game 4 and Game 5 of the Heat's series with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Let's look at three reasons why the Knicks will beat the Heat in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
3. New York Knicks won't let Jimmy Butler take over the series
The Miami Heat are in the second round of the playoffs for one reason. Jimmy Butler was the NBA's best player in the entire first round. Butler averaged 39.6 points on 59.7% shooting from the field and 44.4% 3-point shooting. Those eye-popping numbers don't even accurately reflect how much Butler took over the series. Butler snatched the Bucks' soul in the final two games, scoring at will and sending the East's No. 1 seed home.
Butler is not going to do what he did against Milwaukee. Not on Tom Thibodeau's watch. The Knicks sent constant double-teams Donovan Mitchell's way and forced the other Cavs to try to beat them. You can be sure that New York will treat Butler the same way.
How was Butler able to score 98 points on 61 shots in the final two games against the Bucks? Milwaukee only double-teamed Butler four times total in Game 4 and Game 5. Jrue Holiday couldn't contain Butler on his own. Thibodeau coached Butler with two different teams and knows firsthand what Miami's superstar can do. A combination of Josh Hart, RJ Barrett and other Knicks' defenders will make sure that other Heat players must step up if Miami wants to win the series.
2. New York Knicks are deeper than the Miami Heat
The Knicks' depth was a deciding factor in their 4-1 series win over the Cavs. While Cleveland had trouble finding a reliable fifth player, New York was getting significant contributions from multiple players off the bench. In the Heat-Bucks series, Butler almost eliminated Milwaukee by himself. That won't be the case in the second round.
Miami's role players are going to have to hit shots against New York. This is where the Heat are going to feel Tyler Herro's absence. A broken right hand has likely ended Herro's season. Gabe Vincent, Miami's third-leading scorer in the playoffs, had more shot attempts than field goals made in each of the last three games against Milwaukee. Kevin Love had no more than six points in three of the last four games. Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry are no longer the reliable scorers that they once were.
The Knicks' players outside of Brunson and Julius Randle are better than the Heat's supporting cast around Butler and Bam Adebayo. Miami doesn't have its third 20-point scorer in Herro. New York has its No. 3 option in Barrett, who came alive at the end of the Cleveland series. Hart would be the Heat's third-best player. Obi Toppin seamlessly replaced Randle when the All-Star missed time with an ankle injury. Immanuel Quickley and Isaiah Hartenstein will have their moments against Miami.
1. New York Knicks will dominate the Miami Heat on the glass
It was no fluke when the Knicks dominated the Cavs on the glass in the first round. New York outrebounded Cleveland 227 to 186 in five games. During the regular season, the Knicks' 52.1% rebounding rate ranked second in the NBA. The Cavs' 49.6% rebounding rate was 20th. The gap was too much for Cleveland to overcome. The same will be true for the Heat, which were only barely ahead of the Cavs with the league's No. 18 rebounding rate over 82 games.
Mitchell Robinson was arguably New York's second-most important player in the first round. The center averaged 9.8 rebounds in just 28.2 minutes per game. Randle was a borderline disaster on offense, but he contributed by grabbing 26 boards in the first three games of the series. Hart is one of the league's best rebounding guards. The Knicks ranked second in offensive rebounding rate, as well, in both the regular season and the first round.
Getting those second-chance points will be key to scoring against Miami's defense. The Heat entered the playoffs with the worst offense of any postseason team. If Butler isn't playing like prime Michael Jordan and Miami is consistently one-and-done on offense, the Knicks will beat the Heat and advance to their first conference finals in 23 years.
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