Subscribe
Follow Us
The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees will face off in a decisive Game 5 of the American League Division Series on Monday night at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Guardians-Yankees prediction and pick, laid out below.
Cleveland stormed back from an opening loss in this series to win the next two before falling Sunday night, making Game 5 a necessity. Now, the Guardians will face a winner-take-all game in New York after squandering a chance to eliminate New York in Cleveland.
New York started this series with an exciting 4-1 victory thanks in large part to Harrison Bader, Anthony Rizzo, and Gerrit Cole. Again, the second win of the series was won on the performances of these three. Now, New York will look to secure the series in its home stadium on Monday night.
Here are the Guardians-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Yankees Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-166)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 7 (-124)
Under: 7 (+102)
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland will send Aaron Civale to the mound in this one. Civale has not pitched in a postseason game in his four seasons. In the regular season, Civale went 5-6 with a 4.92 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 97 innings across 29 starts. Civale averages about 91 mph on his fastball, but his curveball is the best pitch in his arsenal. Batters have hit just .124 with 58 strikeouts in 105 at-bats against the curveball. Civale's 24.1 percent strikeout rate this season has been the best of his career.
Cleveland's bullpen will be out in full force this game, which is a comforting thought for this fan base. In 25.2 innings this postseason, Cleveland relievers have posted a minuscule 0.70 ERA with 34 strikeouts. Only Eli Morgan and Sam Hentges have allowed a run out of the bullpen. Closer Emmanuel Clase is rested, having not pitched since firing 2.1 shutout innings on Friday. Opponents hit just .167 against Clase this season.
Cleveland's lineup has been okay in the postseason, hitting .223, with their .323 slugging percentage ranking lowest of all the teams remaining. Jose Ramirez leads the team with a .333 batting average, hitting one home run and two doubles. Rookie Oscar Gonzalez continues his hot streak from the regular season, hitting .259 with one home run (a walk-off dinger) and three game-winning hits. Reversing the trend from the regular season, Cleveland has struck out an astonishing 64 times, the second-highest total of the postseason. Cleveland will have to acclimate to multiple relievers in this one.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
Jameson Taillon will be the starter for New York. Taillon has already pitched once this series, a disastrous 10th inning in Game 2 in which he faced three batters, who all reached base, while surrendering two runs and recording no outs. Still, Taillon turned in a solid regular season, pitching to a 3.90 ERA with 151 strikeouts in 177.1 innings across 32 starts, his highest total since 2018. Taillon's 4.4 percent walk rate ranked in the 96th percentile of the league. It is unclear how long Taillon can pitch, but given the nature of the game, it will certainly be a short leash.
Aaron Boone has drawn the ire of the fan base with some questionable bullpen maneuverings and will need to overcome those in this game. Closer Clay Holmes should be good to go, and basically everyone not named Wandy Peralta is available from the bullpen. Still, we may even get a fourth straight game from Peralta, as he does not seem the type to turn down an appearance. Domingo German would likely be the option if length is required, as he started most of this season before moving to the bullpen for the playoffs. New York's bullpen has pitched to a 3.55 ERA in 12.2 innings this postseason.
New York ranks second in the postseason with seven home runs, but last of the remaining teams with a miserable .177 batting average. Harrison Bader and Anthony Rizzo are each hitting .286, with Bader providing three home runs and Rizzo belting one. Aaron Judge has hit just .125 with one home run and nine strikeouts in 16 at-bats. Still, since hitting the home run on Saturday night, Judge's at-bats have progressively gotten better. Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run, but his average sits at just .083, a far cry from his recent postseason success with New York. This offense desperately needs some runs to support a makeshift pitching performance.
Final Guardians-Yankees Prediction & Pick
New York seemed unbeatable at times, and should Judge and Stanton click, this one could be over quickly.
Final Guardians-Yankees Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (+138), over 7 (-124)
