Alexander Zverev takes on Rafael Nadal at the French Open. Our French Open odds series has our Zverev Nadal prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Zverev Nadal.

The 2024 French Open has no bigger first-round match than this one. This is the main event. A total of 128 players compete for the men's championship. A total of 256 singles players participate in both the men's and women's tournaments combined. No first-round match packs as much drama, intrigue, or star power as this clash between Nadal, a 14-time French Open champion, and Zverev, who has played in a major final and reached multiple major semifinals. It is remarkable to get a matchup this good and this interesting in the first round.

The enormity of the match is magnified by the fact that Nadal is considering retirement as soon as this year. He hasn't made any official announcement about exactly when he will call it a career, but the end does seem closer and not far away. Nadal's body has been unforgiving in recent years, especially over the past several months. Nadal has barely played. He just lacks the explosiveness and force any athlete needs in order to be supremely competitive. Nadal has pushed his body very hard, and to be clear, he has squeezed every last ounce of potential from it for roughly 20 years. He has actually lasted longer — and played better for a longer period of time — than many critics and analysts thought he would. He didn't burn out at age 30 or 31 the way many other tennis players have done in the past. He was still a vital, formidable and relevant presence in men's tennis at age 36. He greatly exceeded expectations in that regard. Now, though, it seems the tank is running on empty.

Can Nadal summon up enough energy and cleverness to outfox Zverev, a younger and stronger player in his physical prime? We will all get to find out. Zverev does have a deserved reputation as a player who can and will get nervous. Nadal will need Zverev to play a shaky and wobbly match in order to win.

Here are the Alexander Zverev-Rafael Nadal French Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

French Open Odds: Alexander Zverev-Rafael Nadal Odds

Game spread

Zverev -5.5: -128
Nadal +5.5: -106

Money line

Zverev: -385
Nadal: +300

To win first set

Zverev: -245
Nadal: +196

Total Games In Match

Over 36.5: -118
Under 36.5: -116

Zverev over 20.5 games: -110
Zverev under 20.5 games: -120

Nadal over 16.5 games: -112
Nadal under 16.5 games: -112

How To Watch Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal

TV: Tennis Channel and/or NBC

Stream: Tennis Channel Plus and/or Peacock

Time: 8:30 a.m. ET / 5:30 a.m. PT (depending on length of previous match on court; 25 minutes after previous match)

*Watch Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Alexander Zverev Could Cover The Spread

The spread of 5.5 games for this match means that if Zverev wins three sets by two or more games, he will cover. If Zverev wins 6-4, 7-5, 6-4, he covers. If he wins 7-5, 7-5, 6-4, he covers. Basically, if Zverev wins in straight sets and doesn't need a tiebreaker to win any of the three sets, he covers. That's realistic.

Why Rafael Nadal Could Cover The Spread

If Nadal can force at least one tiebreaker, and if he can keep the other two sets within two games, he will cover the spread. If Nadal loses 7-6, 6-4, 7-5, he covers. If he loses 6-4, 6-4, 7-6, he covers. That's realistic, given that Zverev might be nervous and could keep Nadal in this match.

Final Alexander Zverev-Rafael Nadal Prediction & Pick

The best bet here is total games for Zverev. Unless he dominates, Zverev will probably lose at least one set. If this match goes four sets, Zverev is likely to wear down Nadal and ultimately win. In a four-set scenario, Zverev is almost certain to win more than 20.5 games. If you think the match will end in straight sets, don't bet on this, but if you're convinced Nadal will win at least one set, Zverev total games and the over is the right play.

Final Alexander Zverev-Rafael Nadal Prediction & Pick: Zverev over 20.5 games