Arsenal begins the campaign playing against Wolves. It's time to continue our premier league odds series with an Arsenal-Wolves prediction and pick.
The Premier League title has evaded Arsenal every year since 2004, but this season could finally see the Gunners lift the trophy. Mikel Arteta and company have pushed Manchester City to the brink each of the last two years, only to let glory slip from their grasp both times.
Arteta's squad is not at a loss for talent, though, as Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, and more return to lead a dynamic attack. Italian defender Riccardo Calafiori arrives to bolster the backline in what looks to be a complete team on paper.
Meanwhile, Wolverhampton sold its two best players, winger Pedro Neto and captain Max Kilman, signaling a transitional period for Gary O'Neil's club. In the meantime, though, the Wanderers brought in Celta Vigo forward Jurgen Strand, Braga winger Rodrigo Gomes, Man City midfielder Tommy Doyle, and Sport Recife right back Pedro Lima, who are all rising youngsters.
Here are the Premier League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Premier League Odds: Arsenal-Wolves Odds
Arsenal: -650
Fulham: +1400
Draw: +650
Over 2.5 goals: -228
Under 2.5 goals: +167
How to Watch Arsenal vs. Wolves
Time: 10:00 AM ET
TV: USA Network/Universo
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Why Arsenal Will Win
The Gunners are leaps and bounds ahead of the Wolves on paper, and they're unlikely to lose focus at any point within the domestic campaign. They can't afford to drop points against inferior teams, as Erling Haaland and City will likely leave them with little margin for error.
Additionally, the Wolves will be short-handed, as right back Nelson Semedo is suspended with a red card from last season's final game. Attacker Daniel Podence is questionable to play, and Matheus Cunha is already ruled out with a thigh ailment.
Saka, Rice, Martin Oodegard, and Kai Havertz should have little trouble breaking down the Wolves' backline, while Calafiori and William Saliba won't have any major threats to deal with on the other side.
With Arsenal finishing just two points behind Pep Guardiola's men last year, the club will want to wash the taste of heartbreak out of its mouth. Arteta thinks the Gunners are right there, via The Analyst's Tom Edge.
“We have to better them. We are closer. When you see all the metrics, we are right there. We’ve been the best team in the league in almost every metric,” Arteta said.
The gaffer had a point, as Arsenal was the best squad last year according to The Analyst's “expected points model.”
“Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by every side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken,” Edge explained. “It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times; the expected points for each team in every match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.”
The data showed the Gunners topping the league with 81.2 expected points, with City sporting 79.2. In reality, Guardiola and company finished with 91 points, and the Gunners had 89.
Arsenal even set club records with 28 wins and 91 goals, but that wasn't enough to beat the blue-and-white giants. It will be key for the Gunners to get off to a better start this year, as they still couldn't win the league despite picking up victories in 16 of their final 18 matches.
Why Wolves Will Win
Arsenal could have fitness issues, as Rice, Saka, Saliba, and goalkeeper David Raya all missed some of the preseason to recover from EURO 2024. Additionally, defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu and Kieren Tierney are ruled out, and Jurrien Timber is questionable. Attacking midfielder Fabio Vieira is also doubtful.
O'Neil's Wolves have surpassed expectations before, as the club surprisingly challenged for a European placement last season before running out of steam.
Final Arsenal-Wolves Prediction & Pick
It's best to not overthink this one. The Gunners are better than the Wolves at every level, and they'll have the home crowd at Emirates Stadium behind them. Arteta's squad is more invested in competing this year, while O'Neil and company will evaluate who to keep around for the long haul.
Expect Arsenal to score multiple goals, while not conceding more than one. The lineups have not been announced, but whether Arteta rolls with the creative Jorginho or the physical Thomas Partey in midfield, the Gunners should have their way with Wolverhampton. Veteran striker Gabriel Jesus should have plenty of scoring chances as well.
As long as Arsenal stays invested and respects the competition, its fans can expect an easy three points to open the season.
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Final Arsenal-Wolves Prediction & Pick: Arsenal ML (-650)
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