The Houston Astros take on the Toronto Blue Jays in the final game of a four game set Thursday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out an Astros-Blue Jays prediction and pick while letting you know how to watch, as well.
After being blown out in game one, the Blue Jays have held the Astros to just three runs in the last two games. Those runs have come on home runs by Mauricio Dubon and Yordan Alvarez. However, the Blue Jays have been able to match the power. George Springer, Bo Bichette, Dalton Varsho and Brandon Belt have all homered in the last two games with Bichette homering twice. Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman were incredible on the mound the last two games and Toronto will need the best out of their starting pitcher in this game if they want to win the series.
The Astros will have their ace on the mound in Framber Valdez. Jose Berrios will get the ball for Toronto.
Here are the Astros-Blue Jays MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Blue Jays Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+146)
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-178)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
How To Watch Astros vs. Blue Jays
TV: AT&T SportsNet Southwest, Sportsnet (Canada)
Stream: MLB TV Subscription, stream on the FanDuel app
Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Valdez is one of the best pitchers in the league and has been proving it all season. He has a 2.16 ERA in 12 starts with a WHIP of 1.03. In his last three starts, Valdez has thrown 22 innings, given up 13 hits, struck out 19, and allowed just one total run. The way he is pitching, Valdez is going to be almost unhittable in this game. If he can show up and have another great outing, the Astros will cover the spread.
Valdez is impressive on the road. He is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He is even better agaisnt AL opponents as he has an ERA below 1.00 when facing teams in the American League. He is both on the road and facing an American League team in this game so there is a lot of opportunity for success. As long as Valdez pitches as he has been, the Astros should have no problem covering the spread.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
For as good as Valdez has been, there are some weaknesses. Valdez allows an average exit velocity of 92.1, that is the fifth highest in the MLB among qualified pitchers. He allows teams to hit the ball hard off him consistently. If he is not striking out batter, then the defense is forced to make some pretty tough plays. If the Blue Jays can put the ball in play, there is a good chance it will be with some force. Their lineup is good, so Toronto has a better matchup than one might expect.
Berrios' has been great since the start of may, especially in his last seven starts. Toronto is 7-1 in that span and Berrios has not allowed more than three earned runs. He does already have a start against the Astros, as well. In that start, the Blue Jays lost, but it was to no fault of Berrios. He threw seven innings, allowed just two runs on three hits and struck out three. If he can carry his momentum and have a similar start, the Blue Jays will cover the spread and keep this game close.
Final Astros-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
This game is going to be close. Both pitchers are at the top of their games and it could very well be a 2-1 final score. With that said, I like the Blue Jays to cover the spread as the underdogs.
Final Astros-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Blue Jays +1.5 (-178), Under 8 (-102)
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