The Houston Astros are back in the thick of the AL West race after a miserable start to the season, and they may inquire about Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a result.
If the Blue Jays trade Guerrero by the Aug. 1 MLB trade deadline, the Astros are the betting favorites to land him, via Bet Online Sportsbook.
Houston has been given +200 odds to acquire Guerrero. The Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants are the top two teams behind them.
Guerrero has actually been somewhat of a disappointment over the past couple of seasons.
Back in 2021, he finished second in AL MVP voting after slashing .311/.401/.601 with a league-leading 48 home runs to go along with 111 RBI. He also paced the league with 123 runs scored and was solid defensively, posting a 2.5 UZR/150 and 2 DRS. As a result, Guerrero registered a 6.3 WAR.
Since then, however, Guerrero's production has tailed off. He has still been good, but not fantastic like he was in 2021.
The following season, the 25-year-old slashed .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers and 97 RBI. Then, in 2023, Guerrero's production declined even further, as he slashed .264/.345/.444 with 26 dingers and 94 RBI.
Guerrero has one year remaining on his deal after this season, so the struggling Blue Jays may want to gauge trade interest in the three-time All-Star.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't really solve the Astros' biggest problem
The Astros actually don't have many issues offensively. They rank first in the majors in batting average, fourth in OPS, fifth in home runs and 10th in runs scored. All of that in spite of third baseman Alex Bregman basically forgetting how to hit.
So while Guerrero would certainly be a nice pickup, he would be more of a luxury piece than anything else.
Don't get me wrong: Houston could stand to shore up first base considering how much of a bust Jose Abreu has been. Jon Singleton doesn't exactly inspire much confidence, either. But the Astros have a lineup littered with good hitters like Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Could they use another bat? Sure, but again, it's not their primary problem.
The biggest obstacle facing Houston is its pitching staff.
It sounds strange given that the Astros have made it to seven straight ALCS on the back of their strong pitching, winning a couple of World Series titles along the way.
This year, however, it has been a different story, as Houston ranks 26th in the bigs in ERA and 27th in WHIP. Not exactly a recipe for success.
Ronel Blanco has been a revelation for the Astros, going 5-0 with a 1.99 ERA over nine starts. Other than him, it has been slim pickings in Houston's rotation, even when it comes to Justin Verlander, who has been ordinary (3-2, 3.60 ERA).
Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti both have ERAs over 6. Framber Valdez has labored.
The Astros' bullpen has been solid, especially with closer Josh Hader finally settling in after a brutal start, but a decent bullpen won't matter much if your starting rotation isn't able to keep you in games.
This is the hurdle facing Houston right now, and it isn't a hitch that Guerrero can solve.
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