We're back for another installment of our 2023 FIBA World Cup series of predictions and picks. We head over to Group E for this next matchup between Australia (1-1) and Japan (1-1) as both teams battle to advance past the group stage. Check out our FIBA World Cup odds series for our Australia-Japan prediction and pick.

Australia comes into this game following an 82-85 defeat at the hands of Germany. It was a crucial loss as they allowed Germany to lock up the top spot in the group. Now, Australia is playing for their lives as they contend with Japan for the final spot. Listed as one of the tournament favorite early on, Australia will have to win-out to keep their hopes alive.

Japan comes into this game after beating Finland 98-88 as sizable underdogs on the betting lines. It marked the country's first win over a European team in FIBA history as they were led by their young core of players. Now, they face Australia with a chance to advance to the next round as the No. 38-ranked FIBA team.

Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2023 FIBA World Cup Odds: Australia-Japan Odds

Australia: -18.5 (-115)

Japan: +18.5 (-111)

Over: 169.5 (-122)

Under: 169.5 (-104)

How to Watch Australia vs. Japan 

Stream: ESPN+, Courtside 1891

Time: 7:10 a.m. ET/ 4:10 a.m. PT

*Watch FIBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Australia Will Cover The Spread

By most accounts, Australia played a solid game against Germany despite the loss. The shot better from the field, from three, and from the line while also managing more assists and rebounds as a team. A few costly turnovers down the stretch opened the door for Germany to mount a late push and Australia felt stunned in the loss. They'll be the better team on paper here, but they'll need to stay fundamental and be weary of this inspired Japan team.

Patty Mills had a great game for them with 21 points, five rebounds, and six assists. However, they can't allow their point guard to be their leading rebounder by any means. Australia will need to be more aggressive in the paint and establish themselves early. Josh Giddey has been scoring the ball with ease, but look for him to take a more facilitating role as he tries to improve on his three-assist performance from last game.

Why Japan Will Cover The Spread

Japan was clearly outmatched and outsize against Germany in their first game and they could continue to struggle against bigger, more physical teams. However, in their last game against Finland, Japan was able to stand tall defensively and play fast on offense. They jumped out to an early lead and responded with a massive 35-15 fourth quarter as they pulled away with the win. Center Joshua Hawkinson feasted all game and led the way with 28 points and a whopping 19 rebounds. Yuki Kawamura was also a huge scoring factor with 25 points and nine assists.

Suns' guard Yuta Watanabe wasn't much of a factor in their last game with only four points, but a bounce-back game for him could mean Japan would be in a position to win this game. If they can continue scoring the ball efficiently down-low throw Hawkinson, look for their defense to relieve some of the pressure as they lock in on the other end.

Final Australia-Japan Prediction & Pick

This is going to be an extremely close game with both teams battling for the final group spot. Australia is the much better team from top to bottom, but they've going to have to work in the paint to have a chance against the consistent scoring of Japan. While they're likely to get the win, 19 points feels like a massive spread to cover in a do-or-die game for both teams. Let's take Japan to cover in what should be a fun game to watch.

Final Australia-Japan Prediction & Pick: Japan +18.5 (-111)