The Paris Olympics are here, and Spain will battle Australia in a major showdown between two countries looking for their chance on Saturday at Pierre Mauroy Stadium. It’s a battle of two beloved countries as we share our Olympics odds series, and make an Australia-Spain prediction and pick.
Spain and Australia have played each other in six total games in their tenured history, and The first matchup happened in 1972. Ultimately, Spain has won four games and Australia has won twice. Their most recent Olympics matchup occurred in the third-place game in the 2016 Rio Games, when Spain edged out the Aussies 89-88. Significantly, Pau Gasol was the best player on the court on this day, scoring 31 points. Patty Mills led the Aussies with 30 points.
Spain has won the last two Olympic games between the two. Additionally, they took the last FIBA World Cup matchup 95-88, with Marc Gasol leading the Spaniards with 33 points and six rebounds. Mills again led the Australians with 34 points while shooting 11 for 25, including 7 for 14 from beyond the arc.
Both Gasol brothers are retired from the Spanish team. Ultimately, someone else will have to step up. Mills will probably play in his last Olympic games. Who will win this showdown?
Here are the 2024 Olympic Men’s basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2024 Olympics Odds: Australia-Spain Basketball Odds
Australia: -4.5 (-106)
Moneyline: -194
Spain: +4.5 (-114)
Moneyline: +156
Over: 166.5 (-110)
Under: 166.5 (-110)
How to Watch Australia vs. Spain in Paris
Time: 5 AM ET/2 AM PT
TV: NBC Sports
Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)
Why Australia Will Win
Australia has the most talent it has had in a while. Furthermore, people forget how close they came to winning gold in the 2020 Tokyo Games. But they fell short because they ran into the US National Team and could not overcome them. Therefore, they finished with the Bronz Medal.
Mills is back and hoping to win the gold medal this time around. But he is 35 years old and coming off a season in which he averaged just 2.7 points per game for the Atlanta Hawks. Who will step up in case he cannot lead the squad?
Josh Giddey might be an option after averaging 12.3 points per game while shooting 47.5 percent from the floor, including 33.7 percent for the Oklahoma City Thunder this past season. Josh Green will also be a good option, as he averaged 8.2 points per game while shooting 47.2 percent for the Dallas Mavericks. Dyson Daniels is another NBA player, and he averaged 5.8 points per game for the Hawks.
What should give the Aussies some hope is based on how well they played against the United States. Losing 98-92 to Team USA illustrated how they can keep up with the best of teams.
Australia will win this game if Giddey can take that next step and lead the team. Then, they need to slow the game down and control the flow of things.
Why Spain Will Win
Spain has undergone a makeover. Now, they will feature a new core who will attempt to keep the Spanish upright and get them off to a good start in the group stage.
Santi Aldama is their best player and the only NBA player. This past season, he averaged 10.7 points per game while shooting 43.5 percent for the Memphis Grizzlies. Also, Aldama averaged 18.3 points per game while shooting 58.3 percent from the floor, including 45 percent from beyond the arc in the qualifying tournament.
The next player to watch is Willy Hernangomez. Overall, he averaged 12.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in the qualifying tournament while shooting 41 percent from the floor, including 50 percent from the triples. Dario Brizuela is another guy to watch, as he averaged 9.5 points per game while shooting 40 percent from the floor.
Spain also got some good experience under its legs after demolishing Puerto Rico 107-84. In this game, Aldama led the way with 20 points while shooting 6 for 11 from the hardwood, including 4 for 9 from the three-point line. Hernangomez added 16 points. The Spaniards finished that game, shooting 52.8 percent from the floor.
What worked in that game was the ability to convert from all parts of the floor. This team has some shooters, and it may help them shock the world, and possibly pull an upset against Australia.
Spain will cover the spread if Aldama and Hernangomez can both keep shooting well. Then, they need to avoid a bad start and not let the Aussies dictate the action.
Final Australia-Spain Prediction & Pick
Spain has won the last several battles with Australia. But it seems like the tide is turning, as Australia has improved over the last few seasons and came ridiculously close to getting gold or silver in the Tokyo Games. It’s difficult not to see them challenging it again. We can see the Aussies controlling this game after Spain tries to put up a fight early on. They will do enough to cover the spread in this battle, getting off to a good start in the Paris Olympics.
Click here for more betting news & predictions
Final Australia-Spain Prediction & Pick: Australia: -4.5 (-106)
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