After a long and confusing winter (thanks, global warming) MLB Opening Day is just a few short days away, bringing with the cerebral action of fantasy baseball. While fantasy baseball does not have the same highs and lows as fantasy football, the increased control and stronger correlation with managerial effort make it the favorite fantasy sport for many fans.
With large rosters and daily tinkering, fantasy baseball is much more a game based on adding upstart players early in the season, streaming players who are hot, and maximizing playing slots. Still, building a solid base through the draft is key to improving your fantasy team's floor and setting a strong foundation for these inevitable free-agent signings.
With these considerations in mind, here are eight fantasy baseball sleepers to target in drafts for the 2024 season.
Nolan Gorman (2B/3B/DH), St. Louis Cardinals
After dealing with a bad back all of last season, Cardinals infielder Nolan Gorman noted recently that he is finally feeling 100%. The cure? Switching from popcorn that uses peanut oil to kernels that use coconut oil instead. Gorman claims the switch helped him lose 8-10 pounds in the offseason.
While it is difficult to determine if there is causation behind his correlation, fantasy owners will be thrilled to hear that Gorman has a clean bill of health. While battling injuries last year, Gorman still managed to put up 27 homers and 76 RBI in 119 games. His expected stats were even more promising. Gorman ranked in the 97% in barrel % (batted balls with a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage) and in Expected Weighted On-Base Average on Contact, which measures a hitter's productiveness when they put a ball into play.
A 40-homer, 100 RBI season is not out of the question for Gorman — an extreme rarity from a middle infielder.
Riley Greene (OF), Detroit Tigers
The lightning to Spencer Torkelson's thunder, Riley Greene is poised to break through in 2024 if he can finally stay healthy. Last season, Greene batted .365 in May, spent June on the IL, then returned and hit .343 in July. The lefty finished in the 92nd percentile in expected batting average and was also in the 88th percentile in expected slugging — a full 52 points better than his actual slugging percentage. With an ability to hit to all fields, Riley Greene is a valuable late-round fantasy pick with considerable upside.
Christopher Morel (OF/2B/DH), Chicago Cubs
While his spot in the field is still a mystery, Christopher Morel's powerful bat will ensure he stays in the lineup this season for the Cubs. Morel had 26 homers in only 107 contests last year while ranking in the 85th percentile in expected slugging percentage and the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. With possible middle infield eligibility, Christopher Morel is a valuable late-round pickup despite his scary strikeout rate.
Josh Naylor (1B/DH), Cleveland Guardians
While younger brother Bo Naylor is receiving significant attention as a top catching prospect, Josh Naylor quietly emerged as a productive first baseman. Josh finished 2023 with 97 RBI and a .308 batting average — batting .330 from April onward. The elder Naylor also excels at avoiding strikeouts, with just 68 of 495 plate appearances ending in a K. While he is not a fearsome power hitter (17 HR in 2023), Naylor's contact-heavy approach makes him a high-floor first baseman available in the middle rounds for fantasy baseball managers who do not draft an elite platey like Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson.
Bryan Woo (SP), Seattle Mariners
After finishing his rookie season with a 4.21 ERA and a 4-5 record across 18 starts, Seattle Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo is poised to take another step forward in his sophomore campaign. Opponents batted just .209 against his fastball in 2023 — with his four-seamer and sinker worth a combined 11 runs (86th percentile). These pitches helped the rookie rank in the 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate and post an expected ERA of 3.48.
If Bryan Woo can continue to develop his slider and sweeper, he has All-Star potential in 2024 as part of one of the best starting rotations in baseball.
Ryan Pepiot, SP, (Tampa Bay Rays)
While Tampa Bay Rays starting pitchers often experience frustrating usage, no team seems to get more out of its arms than the penny-pinching Rays. Acquired in the Tyler Glasnow trade, Ryan Pepiot has already proved he can handle Major League hitting in a pair of short stints with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 26-year-old has a 2.76 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 76 innings across two years with the Dodgers and will slot in as a key back-end starter for Tampa Bay.
Pepiot was worth nine runs across only 42 innings last year while ranking near the league in hard-hit rate. If he can even approach that type of production while increasing his innings, Ryan Pepiot will be a valuable starting pitcher this year in fantasy baseball.
Jhoan Duran (RP), Minnesota Twins
Despite being the primary closer on a playoff team, Jhoan Duran finished just 15th in MLB in saves last year with 27 saves in 32 chances. It is difficult to see the Minnesota Twins underutilizing him again in 2024. Duran was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball last year, striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings while posting an expected ERA of .260. His 100-mile-per-hour fastball flummoxed hitters but his breaking ball was even better. Opponents batted .159 against Duran's curveball with a whiff rate approaching 50%.
Duran will start the season on the IL with a mild oblique strain, but he is still worth the investment of a top-75 pick.
Alex Lange (RP), Detroit Tigers
Alex Lange is another AL Central closer with a high-end end who could see an uptick in save opportunities in 2024. Lange was nearly unhittable the first two months of 2023, carrying a 1.11 ERA with 10 saves into June. But from that point on, the righthander posted a 5.18 ERA while walking more than seven batters per nine innings. A better Tigers team should lead to more save chances in 2024, and if Lange can improve his control issues while continuing to strike out better than a batter per inning, he will be a valuable back-end closer for fantasy owners.
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