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Check out FanDuel’s 2022 college football over under win total odds, including the Baylor over under win total prediction, part of our college football odds series.
Dave Aranda coached the LSU defense to the 2019 national championship under Ed Orgeron. Aranda, who had previously worked at Utah State and Wisconsin, had steadily done good work as a defensive coordinator. Yet, even though he was part of a national championship coaching staff at LSU, one obvious point remained: Joe Burrow turned in one of the greatest individual seasons in college football history in 2019. The LSU offense was spectacular. A national championship defense did not have to be great that year. It merely had to be decent. Did Dave Aranda really deserve that much credit for what he and LSU achieved?
In 2021 at Baylor, all doubts should have been put to rest.
Aranda beat Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma. He won the Big 12 championship. He won the Sugar Bowl, beating Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. Baylor did this with a mediocre quarterback and a relatively inconsistent offense which was hardly an elite unit. In 2019, Aranda did a solid job while his quarterback was stratospherically great. Two years later, Baylor had a quarterback who was moderately competent and a head coach who was stratospherically great. Aranda somehow coached a team which lacked large numbers of splashy, five-star recruits to a series of monumental achievements. This is why Aranda was part of the coaching carousel. USC and LSU both had good reason to consider him as a candidate. Yet, Aranda stayed at Baylor. The Bears have to be thrilled with that fact as the 2022 season begins.
Here are the 2022 College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2022 College Football Odds: Baylor Over/Under Win Total Odds
Baylor Bears:
Over: 7.5 (-170)
Under: 7.5 (+145)
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Why Baylor Will Win Eight Games
This is another puzzlingly low win total. Why is this number 7.5 and not 8.5 or even 9.5? Baylor will be favored in at least 10 of its 12 games this year. The two exceptions: at Oklahoma and at BYU. Baylor will be favored to beat Oklahoma State since that game is at home, but the spread should be very small. Baylor might be a two-point favorite in that game, close to a pick'em. Still, how is the over-under at 7.5? Baylor has to lose five times to not hit the over. Where are five losses coming from? BYU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are the three games which make sense as losses. Maybe Iowa State, but Baylor is more talented. Maybe Texas, but Baylor is better-coached. Maybe Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders are in their first year under a new head coach, Joey McGuire. It's going to be hard for Baylor to lose five times.
Why Baylor Won't Win Eight Games
For Baylor to fall to 7-5 and not win eight games, an argument can be made: Texas, though not particularly well-coached, has a lot of raw, natural talent on its roster, especially on offense. Since Texas plays Baylor late in the year, Texas — which probably won't be very good in September — might be able to evolve into a much better team by then. Texas Tech has a lot of young recruits who, similarly, can get better over time and beat Baylor in November, when the two schools regularly play in the Big 12 Conference. Iowa State and Matt Campbell could spring an ambush on Baylor. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State last year, the Cowboys' only loss other than the Big 12 Championship Game against Baylor. A five-loss formula is not as unlikely or improbable as many might first think.
Final Baylor Win Total Prediction
While Baylor might not be a 10-win team, it certainly won't fall all the way to 7-5. This is a relatively easy pick for the over.
Final Baylor Win Total Prediction: Over 7.5 (-170)
