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UFC Vegas 92: Barboza vs. Murphy will continue to roll from the fight capital of the world as we're set for another betting prediction and pick for our next upcoming bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Germany's Abus Magomedov will take on Brazil's Warlley Alves in what's sure to be an absolute brawl! Check out our UFC odds series for our Magomedov-Alves prediction and pick.
Abus Magomedov (25-6-1) has gone 1-2 since his arrival to the UFC in 2022. He's a former 3-1 fighter from PFL and following a massive win over Dustin Stoltzfus in his debut, he's now dropped back-to-back fights against Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho. He's still early into his career, but he's hoping to get back in the win column as the decent betting favorite here. Magomedov stands 6'2″ with a 78-inch reach.
Warlley Alves (15-7) has gone 8-7 since joining the UFC roster back in 2014. After a solid stretch of wins from 2017-2019, Alves had dropped his last three consecutive bouts, two of which came by KO/TKO. He's faced a who's-who in the Middleweight Division and he'll be looking to get back on track as the underdog once again. Alves stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 92 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 92 Odds: Abus Magomedov-Warlley Alves Odds
Abus Magomedov: -285
Warlley Alves: +245
Over 1.5 rounds: +105
Under 1.5 rounds: -135
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Why Abus Magomedov Will Win
Much was made of Abus Magomedov and his striking long before his arrival to the UFC. Following a sensational front-kick knockout over Dustin Stoltzfus in his debut, it seemed as though the sky was the limit for a prospect with the physical tools like Magomedov. His bout with eventual-champion Sean Strickland could have been too much too fast as his lack of striking defense was seriously exposed throughout the fight. His subsequent bout against Caio Borralho wasn't much better as he failed to find his striking rhythm throughout the fight. Magomedov will have a sizable reach advantage here and being the taller fighter, he should look to utilize his high kicks during this one.
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Abus Magomedov's biggest hole through his losses has been his striking defense and arm guard. His cardio has also wavered throughout his last fights, so he'll need to work on his gas tank and try to create consistent output with his striking. If he falls behind in the fight, it may be tough for him to climb out of the early hole. Nevertheless, Magomedov will find a war when fighting Alves and given all his physical advantages, he should look to strike his way to a knockout win in this one.
Why Warlley Alves Will Win
Warlley Alves is an absolute berserker when it comes to landing shots in the pocket and the more distance he can close throughout this fight, the more successful he'll end up being. He's been in the UFC for the better part of a decade now and he's seen just about every type of fighter you can in the Middleweight Division. He's had a hard time staying competitive in tough brawls as his chin isn't what it used to be. He'll want to avoid any clean power shots from Magomedov to avoid getting dropped during this fight. Still, he fights with a “kill or be killed” attitude, so you can be sure we'll see him swinging no matter the point of the fight or eventual outcome.
Warlley Alves is coming into this fight off three consecutive losses, so you'd have to imagine his back is against the wall in trying to find a win here. He typically fights for the knockout, but given the size disadvantage his opponent poses, it could be tough for him to close the distance and get to Magomedov's chin. He'll need to be measured in his approach and not letting Magomedov counter him clean. Still, fully expect him to to be gunning for the knockout as he heat-seeks Magomedov's chin.
Final Abus Magomedov-Warlley Alves Prediction & Pick
This should be a very fun fight on the prelims and with the total set for only 1.5 rounds, we should be seeing the action come fast and furiously through the first round. Abus Magomedov is fighting with a significant heigh and reach advantage, which favors his kickboxing fight style and striking at range. Warlley Alves will only have the knockout on his mind and if he's able to work his way inside and find his opponent's chin, we could see a stunning upset-knockout from the Brazilian.
While Magomedov's game has been slightly exposed by his last two opponents, I think his striking skills and ability to control the distance should serve him well in this matchup. He's a very good counter-striker and with the way Alves runs into the fire, we could see him catch a few shots on his way in. Let's ride Abus Magomedov to get the win as this fight dips into the later rounds.
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Final Abus Magomedov-Warlley Alves Prediction & Pick: Abus Magomedov (-285); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+105)
