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For the second time in three years, the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) and Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) meet in the Super Bowl. Just like the first meeting, star receiver AJ Brown will be one of the key players to watch. It is time to continue our Super Bowl odds series with an AJ Brown props prediction and pick.
The Chiefs played with a target on their backs all season but regardless, returned to their third straight Super Bowl. They are coming off a 32-29 win over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game, avenging one of their two losses in the regular season in the process.
The Eagles needed one more playoff game to get back to the Super Bowl and ended up back in the spotlight after a one-year hiatus. Philadelphia took down divisional rival Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game in dominant fashion, winning 55-23.
AJ Brown Last Game – Playoff History
After Brown went viral for reading a book on the bench during the 2024-2025 playoffs, his first two postseason performances immediately drew fan ire. Brown compiled just 24 total receiving yards through the Eagles' first two playoff games. However, he broke through in the NFC Championship Game, torching the Commanders with six catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. During the regular season, Brown notched 1,079 receiving yards to record the fifth 1,000-yard campaign of his six years in the league.
Here are the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Super Bowl LIX Odds: AJ Brown Prop Odds
Targets: Over 7.5 (-128)
Targets: Under 7.5 (+100)
Receptions: Over 4.5 (-168)
Receptions: Under 4.5 (+128)
Receiving Yards: Over 70.5 (-110)
Receiving Yards: Under 70.5 (-110)
Longest reception: Over 24.5 yards (-114)
Longest reception: Under 24.5 yards (-114)
Most receiving yards: +190
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AJ Brown Receptions Props
For a superstar receiver in the Super Bowl, Brown has a shockingly low reception total at first glance. However, with the Eagles leaning more on Saquon Barkley late in the year, Brown has notched five or more catches in just one of the team's three playoff games. Overall, he has gone over 4.5 receptions in just two of his past five games — both against the Commanders.
Unlike two of the Eagles' three postseason opponents thus far, the Chiefs boast a top-10 rushing defense, suggesting Barkley won't be able to run all over them the way he has done to recent defenses. In a game that is closing with just a 1.5-point spread, Philadelphia and Kansas City are almost certainly destined for a neck-and-neck 60-minute battle to end the year. Brown topped 4.5 receptions in five of the Eagles' seven one-score games this season.
Final AJ Brown Prediction & Pick: Over 4.5 receptions (-168)
AJ Brown Receiving Yards Props
Even if Brown sees more volume than he recently has, he will spend all game going one-on-one against Trent McDuffie. As the Chiefs' top cornerback, McDuffie recorded a 45 percent shadow rate in the regular season, a top-five mark in the league. Most, if not all, of Brown's lineups will come across McDuffie, as Steve Spagnulo's defense plays man-to-man at one of the highest rates.
As tough as the matchup is, Brown has been one of the NFL's top man-to-man wideouts all year. His 34.6 percent target share against man coverage is fifth in the league. The Chiefs also allowed the eighth-most yards after catch during the regular season, a category in which Brown leads the Eagles in. He will also benefit from DeVonta Smith lining up in the slot against Chamarri Conner, who shifts back to his natural nickelback position with Jaylen Watson healthy.
Final AJ Brown Prediction & Pick: Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110)
AJ Brown Longest Reception Props
If Brown is to go over 70.5 receiving yards, there is a good chance he will rip off at least one big gain. While not the fastest receiver in the league, Brown will out-weight any Chiefs cornerback by 20 pounds or more. His 48 percent contested catch rate ranks 39th in the league.
The Chiefs also struggle to contain deep passes, allowing 52 completions of 20 yards or longer during the regular season. They also allowed the fifth-most 40-yard completions, conceding 10. In the last Super Bowl meeting between the teams, Brown made arguably the most impressive play of the game, scoring a 45-yard touchdown over McDuffie in the second quarter.
Final AJ Brown Prediction & Pick: Over 24.5 longest reception (-114)
