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The Seattle Mariners will take on the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the ALDS on Tuesday afternoon. Logan Gilbert will make his first career playoff start for the Mariners, while veteran Justin Verlander will get the start for the Astros. The first pitch is slated for 3:37 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Mariners-Astros prediction and pick.
Righty Logan Gilbert is the starter for Seattle in Game 1. Gilbert had an excellent regular season in his sophomore campaign. He saw his numbers improve across the board from his rookie season. In 32 regular season starts Gilbert went 13-6 while improving his ERA to a solid 3.20. He led Seattle's starting rotation in wins while placing second in innings, strikeouts, and ERA. The twenty-five-year-old was consistent all season long for Seattle outside of a rough August. However, he bounced back in September and was excellent to close out the year. He went 2-1 with a 2.40 ERA across his last five starts. Where Gilbert has Mariners' backers most optimistic, though, is his track record against Houston. In four starts against the Astros, this season Gilbert went 2-1 and allowed just 7 runs in 25 innings of work. Gilbert held Houston's potent lineup to a .228 batting average – well below their .248 team mark.
For Houston, long-time ace Justin Verlander will make his first postseason appearance since 2019. Verlander was a revelation this regular season in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. The thirty-nine-year-old put together arguably the best season in his hall-of-fame career. He led the American League in wins with 18, ERA at 1.75, and WHIP of 0.83. Verlander was nothing short of fantastic and was one of the feel-good stories of the regular season. He was somehow even better at home (he went 10-1 and his ERA dropped to 1.64 in games at Minute Maid Park). Verlander also saw success when playing Seattle. Against the division rival, Verlander went 5-1 across six starts while holding the Astros to a .210 batting average. When making a Mariners-Astros prediction you have to take into account how dominant Verlander has been this season.
Here are the Mariners-Astros MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
ALDS Odds: Mariners-Astros Odds
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-118)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 6.5 (-122)
Under: 6.5 (+100)
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle may not be the betting favorite tonight but against the hated Houston Astros, they're sure to be the fan favorite. Seattle infamously snapped baseball's longest postseason drought this year and they'll be rewarded with at least one home game thanks to the ALDS's best-of-five format. The Mariners are coming off a 2-0 series sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. In the game two clincher Seattle erased a 7-run deficit en route to a 10-9 win. The Mariners are playing their best baseball right now and after the last game's shocking comeback, they seem to have the baseball gods on their side.
Things only get tougher from here, though, as the Astros are on a whole different level than Toronto. A game-one win would be a massive boost to Seattle's upset bid. If the Mariners are going to accomplish that, it'll largely fall on the shoulders of superstar rookie center fielder Julio Rodriguez. Although Rodriguez went just 1-7 in the Wild Card series, he was incredible in the regular season. The twenty-one-year-old batted .284, hit 28 home runs, drove in 75 runs, and stole 25 bases. J-Rod struggled at Minute Maid Park during the regular season but the dynamic rookie has a chance to make an even bigger name for himself with a breakout performance in the ALDS.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
The Astros are an absolute machine. The roster certainly looks different than when they won the World Series a short time ago, but the regular season success looks the same. Houston paced the American League with 106 wins this season as they trailed only the Dodgers in all of baseball. The Astros have one of the most complete teams in the MLB and have plenty of playoff experience to boot.
Through all the change Houston has undergone in the past few seasons, second baseman Jose Altuve has remained the steadying force for the AL's top-seeded team. Aiding his case for a strong start to this year's playoffs are his splits against Seattle starter Logan Gilbert. In 19 regular season at-bats against Gilbert this year Altuve hit .421 with an eye-popping 1.318 OPS.
Third baseman Alex Bregman, too, saw success against Gilbert this season. Bregman hit .412 in 17 regular season at-bats against Gilbert. It's hard to take a ton away from such a limited sample size but at the very least we know the Astros' best hitters won't have any unfamiliarity when Gilbert takes the mound Tuesday afternoon.
Final Mariners-Astros Prediction & Pick
Seattle has been fun but against Houston's ace, I've got to lean the Astros in game one.
Final Mariners-Astros Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (-102)
