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Two former 205-pound title challengers collide at UFC 310 when Anthony Smith (38-20) meets Dominick Reyes (13-4) in the featured prelim. It is time to continue our betting odds series with another UFC prediction and pick.
Smith, 36, has been very active since losing to Jon Jones at UFC 235, fighting 12 times in the last five years to an even 6-6 record. However, since his late-career resurgence in 2021, Smith has gone just 2-4 in his last six fights, including a one-sided decision loss to short-notice replacement Roman Dolidze at UFC 303.
Reyes, 34, recently ended a nearly five-year-long losing streak in June with a first-round knockout win over Dustin Jacoby. The win was his first since 2019, ending a four-fight losing streak that began with his controversial loss to Jones at UFC 247.
Here are the UFC 310 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 310 Odds: Anthony Smith-Dominick Reyes Odds
Anthony Smith: +275
Dominick Reyes: -345
Over 1.5 rounds: -175
Under 1.5 rounds: +135
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Why Anthony Smith Will Win
Reyes has lost three of his last four fights by knockout but the odds of Smith getting his first true knockout win since 2018 are fairly slim. If Smith is going to win this fight, he needs to dominate on the ground. Many seem to forget how new Reyes is to MMA; he only started training in 2014 after graduating from college and ending his football career. By the time Reyes made his professional MMA debut, Smith already owned a 21-11 record.
Smith is significantly past his athletic prime, but if he can get Reyes down, he will still be the far superior grappler. Having entered the UFC in 2017 with a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Reyes has fought primarily kickboxers in the Octagon. Smith has completed just three takedowns in his last 10 fights, but if he wants to win, all he really needs is a couple of solid entries.
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Reyes has never been submitted but it is not a stretch to say that Smith is the best grappler he will have ever faced in his career. Just two fights ago, all Smith needed was two minutes to hand Vitor Petrino his first career defeat with a guillotine choke.
Why Dominick Reyes Will Win
UFC Nashville was a fairly stern reminder that despite his four-fight losing streak, Reyes still has the power and athleticism to cause some trouble in this division. As a lifelong athlete, Reyes is only two years younger than Smith, but the speed and athleticism difference will make the two look like they are 10 years apart in the cage. Despite getting his last win with a quick knockout, speed and precision need to be the focal point for Reyes in this matchup.
Even with his win over Jacoby, Reyes' waning chin is still his biggest concern. Regardless, in this fight, he needs to be more worried about avoiding the cage and allowing Smith to initiate any sort of clinch. This is entirely his fight to win on the feet and so long as he does not try and force another quick knockout, the finish should come as a result of his natural power.
Final Anthony Smith-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick
While both fighters have taken a step back from their respective peaks, Smith appears worse for the wear at this point in time. Reyes' biggest concern with age is his durability, but he is still as powerful and athletic as he was when he made his UFC debut. The same cannot be said for Smith, who is fully on the decline entering his 59th professional fight.
Smith has a clear grappling edge on paper but finding a way to exploit that is going to be harder than he might think. Reyes has rarely been forced to engage in that area of the fight game, but even when he has, he has been difficult to control. Not even Jones had success holding Reyes down, as he landed just two takedowns for 1:41 control time in their 25-minute fight. No other fighter has been able to control him for any longer.
On paper, this should be a close fight. In reality, this is entirely Reyes' fight to lose and a chance for him to get another highlight-reel finish.
Final Anthony Smith-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick: Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO (-125), Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
