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Two teams both looking for their seventh win of the year face off at the Camellia Bowl as Arkansas State faces Northern Illinois. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Camellia Bowl Arkansas State-Northern Illinois prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Camellia Bowl will be celebrating its tenth year with this game. Starting in 2014, it has featured teams from the MAC, Sun Belt, and Conference USA, with Conference USA being primarily used as an alternate when an option was not available from the other two conferences. This year, Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt in the game. This will be their third appearance in the Cameilla Bowl, going 1-1 in the prior two games. They enter the game at 6-6 on the year. Arkansas State opened with back-to-back losses to begin the year, losing a combined 110-3 in their first two games. They would rebound though, getting wins over Stony Brook and UMASS in the non-conference slate, and going 4-4 in conference play to secure a bowl game birth.
Meanwhile, Northern Illinois will be representing the MAC in this game. This is their first appearance in this bowl game. They will be looking to win their first bowl game since 2011 when they were in the GoDaddy.com Bowl, and they beat Arkansas State 38-20. This year, they were also 6-6. After upsetting Boston College to open the season, they would lose four straight games. Northern Illinois would rebound though, defeating Akron, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan on their way to six wins and a second-place finish in the MAC West.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Camellia Bowl Odds: Arkansas State-Northern Illinois Odds
Arkansas State: -3 (-110)
Northern Illinois: +3 (-110)
Over: 53.5 (-110)
Under: 53.5 (-110)
How to Watch Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Time: noon ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Arkansas State Will Cover The Spread
The Arkansas State offense ranks 59th in the nation on points per game this year, while sitting 78th in the nation in yards per game. They are 87th in rushing yards per game this year while sitting 58th in passing yards per game. Jaylen Raynor leads the offense for Arkansas State this year. He has completed 150 of 256 passes on the season, good for 2,300 yards on the year. He also has 15 touchdowns on the season. While the 15 touchdowns are solid, he has just three in the last five games, and six of them came in one game against UMASS. Further, he has six interceptions this year, with 14 turnover-worthy passes. Seven of those have come in the last three games. Raynor was named the All Sun-Belt Freshman of the Year though.
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Raynor has also been solid on the ground this year for Arkansas State. He has five rushing touchdowns and 483 yards on the ground this year. The ground game has been led by two backs in this one. Ja'Quez Cross comes in with 689 yards on the year on just 119 rushes. He has also scored seven times. Meanwhile, Zak Wallace comes in with 555 yards and six scores this year. Both of them have over 300 yards after first contact this year as well. Wallace did miss the last game of the year with an injury though. They will also get a boost from most likely having center Jacob Bayer back in this game after he missed the final game of the season.
The receiving game is led by three players. Courtney Jackson comes in with 38 receptions this year for 658 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Corey Rucker is second on the team this year in receptions and yards, coming in with 31 receptions and 598 yards this year. Still, Rucker has not scored this year. Jeff Foreman comes in with 521 yards and four scores this year.
the Arkansas State defense ranked 111th in the nation in points allowed per game while sitting 125th in yards allowed per game. They were 121st against the run while sitting 120th against the pass. Thurman Geathers was their top player on defense this year. He comes into the game this on the team in sacks with one of them but led the team with 45 quarterback pressures. He was also second on the team with 33 stops for offensive failures in the run game, leading to him being named third team all Sun-Belt.
Why Northern Illinois Will Cover The Spread
Northern Illinois comes in ranked 60th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 77th in the nation in yards per game. They were 22nd in the nation in the rush while sitting 113th in the passing game. Rocky Lombardi leads the offense for Northern Illinois at quarterback. He completed 172 of 302 passes for 2,077 yards and ten touchdowns. He has protected the ball well as of late. Lombardi had just one interception in his last nine games, and just five overall. He also through just eight turnover-worthy passes in his last nine games. Lombardi is solid on the ground with six touchdowns this year.
The focus of the offense will be on first-team All-MAC running back Antario Brown. Brown enters the game with 1,164 yards this year and ten scores. He has scored in four of his last five games while being over 70 yards rushing in four of the last five as well. Brown can put up some big games. He has four games this year for 150 yards, including his 280 and four-touchdown performance against Akron.
Meanwhile, the Huskies got good news in Trayvon Rudolph playing in this game. He was the team's leading receiver, and had entered the transfer portal, but has since withdrawn that. He has 509 yards on the year with two scores. The top scoring threat has been Grayson Barnes the tight end, who has 317 yards and four scores.
The defense for Northern Illinois was solid this year. They ranked 26th in the nation in points allowed, while sitting 23rd in yards allowed per game. They were 78th against the rush, but fifth against the pass. Javaughn Byrd was solid for them all year, being named second-team All-MAC. He had two interceptions this year, with another nine pass breakups. He was also a solid tackler, missing just five tackles all season.
Final Arkansas State-Northern Illinois Prediction & Pick
Arkansas State's biggest issue this year has been in turning over the ball. Still, Northern Illinois does not force a lot of turnovers. They will attempt to control the game through the ground game, but that will be difficult. Arkansas State has the better-rushing attack in this one. While they had fewer running yards per game, they were much more effective when they took to the ground. Northern Illinois also struggled against the quick passes, something that Arkansas State is great at. That will be the difference in this game.
Final Arkansas State-Northern Illinois Prediction & Pick: Arkansas State -3 (-110)
