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We're back with another betting prediction and pick ahead of UFC Vegas 103 on Saturday as we take a look at the Featured Prelim of the night in the Heavyweight Division. Florida's own Austen Lane will take on prospect Mario Pinto of Portugal. Check the UFC odds series for our Lane-Pinto prediction and pick.
Austen Lane (13-5) has gone 1-2-0-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2023. After a No Contest ruling and back-to-back losses to open his run, he notched his first victory with the promotion after a unanimous decision over highly touted prospect Robelis Despaigne.
He'll have another difficult task as the betting underdog against a second hungry up-and-comer. Lane stands 6-foot-6 with an 80-inch reach.
Mario Pinto (9-0) will make his UFC debut following an exciting TKO win over Lucas Camacho in Dana White's Contender Series. He won a title over at Levels Fight League and defended the belt twice with impressive performances. Now, he'll look to add himself to the heavyweight mix as the resounding betting favorite in this fight. Pinto stands 6-foot-5 with an 80-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 103 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 103 Odds: Austen Lane-Mario Pinto Odds
Austen Lane: +360
Mario Pinto: -470
Over 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds: -120
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Why Austen Lane Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Robelis Despaigne – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-2-0-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
After three unsatisfactory bouts to begin his UFC career, Austen Lane notched his biggest win over a prospect like Robelis Despaigne. He came into that fight a +275 underdog, but knew he had a chance if he could extend Despaigne past the first round.
From there, Lane capitalized on his opponent's cardio issues by patiently out-striking and taking him down each round. Lane was visibly determined during that bout, and following changes to his training camp, he should pose another threat as the underdog having gotten his first taste at a UFC win.
Austen Lane is typically defensive, but he wastes no time in opening up and engaging in a chaotic scrap if his opponent is calling for it. He's well-rounded with his wrestling and has displayed his knockout power in the past. Defending himself will be the biggest key along with mixing in low leg kicks to help his cause. It may take a full effort, but we've seen him get it done in the past.
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Why Mario Pinto Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Lucas Camacho – TKO (ground strikes, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Mario Pinto made a statement on Dana White's Contender Series and wasted no time in earning his contract with an exciting TKO finish. He's extremely athletic for a heavyweight and is clearly one of these hybrid fighters that fight at their natural weight below the weight class limit.
His boxing is very crisp and technical while carrying all the power behind it. He's also very defensive-minded with his arm guard and does a great job of countering opponents. Similarly to Lane, it'll only take one shot for him to get the job done.
Mario Pinto definitely doesn't spend much time on the ground due to his preference for striking, but he's very adept at stacking opponents and throwing ground strikes.
His athleticism allows him to be agile during the scrambles, and he'll be very hard to take down during this fight. He doesn't even allow opponents to typically get too close to him, so expect Pinto to control the distance throughout this fight.
Final Austen Lane-Mario Pinto Prediction & Pick
Austen Lane will face another similar opponent in the up-and-coming prospect of Mario Pinto. Of course, Pinto's level of competition isn't that of Lane's, making this his most difficult fight by a long stretch. Lane is also as game as fighters come, and he'll be willing to swing with Pinto in a tight pocket if either fighter calls for it.
Lane won't have the luxury of fighting a tired or gassed opponent in this one as Pinto has proven his gas tank in the past. If the two don't knock each other out and Lane can remain defensive through the initial barrage of Pinto, this fight could extend into the later rounds.
Still, we have to favor the boxing technique of Mario Pinto and his athleticism to weave around punches and reach for his own strikes. Austen Lane is a great opponent, but he doesn't typically do well against technical and wild strikers like Pinto. Let's roll with the debuting fighter to notch his first win as this total goes slightly over.
Final Austen Lane-Mario Pinto Prediction & Pick: Mario Pinto (-470); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-110)
