UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane continues on the prelims with a fight between Azat Maksum and Mitch Raposo in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Maksum-Raposo prediction and pick.
Azat Maksum (15-2) enters UFC 321 looking to rebound from a tough stretch. After suffering back-to-back decision losses to Tagir Ulanbekov and Charles Johnson, he previously edged Tyson Nam via split decision, showcasing his wrestling and striking balance. Now, Maksum aims to regain momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mitch Raposo.
Mitch Raposo (9-3) enters UFC 321 fighting to secure his first UFC victory. He dropped close split decisions to Su Mudaerji at UFC 314 and Andre Lima at UFC 302 after an impressive KO win over Justin Valentin in Cage Titans. Determined to rebound, Raposo looks for redemption as he comes into his fight this weekend against Azat Maksum.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 odds: Azat Maksum-Mitch Raposo odds
Azat Maksum: -395
Mitch Raposo: +310
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Azat Maksum will win
- Last Fight: (L) Tagir Ulanbekov – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 (4 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Azat Maksum enters with a 15-2 resume and three UFC decisions against Tyson Nam, Charles Johnson, and Tagir Ulanbekov that showcase durability and composure. His persistent wrestling produced multiple takedowns in every bout—two versus Nam, two versus Johnson, and three versus Ulanbekov—providing a reliable path to bank minutes and rounds.
Mitch Raposo is 9-3 overall and 0-2 in the UFC, dropping consecutive split decisions to Andre Lima at UFC 302 and Su Mudaerji at UFC 314. Close scorecards reflect competitiveness, but they also reveal difficulty creating separation against diverse opponents—precisely the kind of margin pressure that a grindy, control-driven wrestler can exploit.
Maksum’s southpaw stance and level-changing threat should notably blunt Raposo’s shorter 64-inch reach and 5-foot-5 frame, steering exchanges into clinches and fence rides where persistence accumulates. He has already landed takedowns at 18 to 43 percent clips across UFC fights, demonstrating chain-wrestling resilience that holds up over extended three-round minutes.
Against a striker still seeking his first UFC win, repeated entries and mat returns favor Maksum dictating where exchanges occur and how judges score. Expect a wrestling-led decision for Maksum at UFC 321 built on takedowns and output that neutralizes Raposo’s bursts and limits chances to sway rounds.
Why Mitch Raposo will win
- Last Fight: (L) Sumudaerji – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Mitch Raposo has a path to victory over Azat Maksum built around pressure, wrestling, and persistence. He’s one of the more tenacious grapplers in the flyweight division, averaging over a takedown per round and showing clear improvements in his chain wrestling since his debut. Against an opponent with elite takedown defense, persistence becomes his weapon.
While Maksum excels in movement and counterstriking, he’s struggled when forced to fight off his back foot under constant pressure. Raposo’s ability to mix in level changes and grind against the cage can drain Maksum’s gas tank and disrupt his rhythm. By combining clinch control with short boxing bursts, Raposo can blunt the reach advantage and drag the fight into his tempo.
Recent performances show Raposo is learning to blend his wrestling with calculated aggression rather than desperation shots. His improved accuracy and awareness in scrambles could expose Maksum’s occasional defensive lapses during transitions.
If Raposo maintains top pressure early and avoids mid-range kick exchanges, he can neutralize Maksum’s counters and accumulate control time on the ground. In a three-round fight, minute-winning grappling exchanges may secure him a decision victory as he looks to make a statement at UFC 321 this Saturday.
Final Azat Maksum-Mitch Raposo prediction & pick
This matchup between Azat Maksum and Mitch Raposo at UFC 321 projects as a close, competitive flyweight fight, but the odds and stylistic edges favor Maksum. Sitting around a -395 favorite, Maksum enters with superior experience against higher-level competition and a proven ability to control pace through wrestling and positional awareness.
Maksum’s defense and counterstriking are built for Raposo’s forward pressure. The Kazakh fighter keeps distance effectively, switching levels with reactive shots that can neutralize Raposo’s takedown attempts. Once grounded, Maksum’s top control and submission awareness make it difficult for opponents to create scrambles or reversals.
Raposo’s path likely lies in making the fight chaotic—mixing pocket combinations and clinch work to overwhelm Maksum early. But his recent split-decision losses to technical strikers like Su Mudaerji and Andre Lima suggest he can struggle when forced into range-finding exchanges against longer fighters.
Expect Raposo to have moments, particularly in the first round with his aggression and scrambling, but Maksum’s composed approach and gas management should prevail as rounds progress. With cleaner striking, measured tempo, and defensive grappling, Maksum appears poised to outpoint Raposo over three rounds and earn a unanimous decision victory in Abu Dhabi this Saturday.
Final Azat Maksum-Mitch Raposo Prediction & Pick: Azat Maksum (-395), Over 2.5 Rounds (-180)
