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A one-point loss in the last game of the season prevented Ball State from going bowling last year. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Ball State football win total prediction and pick.
Ball State missed getting to three straight bowl games in that last game of the year. Ball State took a 14-3 lead into halftime against Miami (OH) and then extended it early in the 3rd quarter. Miami (OH) came back with a field goal in the third quarter, then two touchdowns in the fourth to get the one-point victory. Ball State is 92nd in returning production though. One of the major losses was Carson Steele, who carried Ball State out of the backfield as the passing game struggled. Still, they bring in Marquez Cooper to replace him, and the offensive line is solid. Layne Hatcher takes over as the quarterback, and he will be looking to Brady Hunt, the tight end to make plays.
The defense was rough last year. They did not force a lot of turnovers and allowed plenty of points down the stretch. They bring back a solid group of linebackers, including a good edge rusher in Tavion Woodard. If Woodard can get some more pressure, it will help this secondary tremendously. The lack of pressure last year allowed quarterbacks plenty of time to get the ball downfield.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ball State Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 5.5 wins: +116
Under 5.5 wins: -142
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Why Ball State Can Win 5.5 Games
Ball State opens with a very difficult non-conference schedule. The defense will not be able to handle either of the two offenses they face in the first two weeks, and they will start 0-2 with losses at Kentucky and Georgia. Indiana State will allow the Cardinals to get back on track. Indiana State will not have the run-stopping ability to contain Cooper, and the Cardinals get to 1-2. Georgia Southern is next, and they are expected to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. While not a Power Five team, it will be a 1-3 start for Ball State. This means they need five wins in conference play, and they will get them.
It starts with Western Michigan. The Broncos are at home and have a good run defense, so this will need to be a big game for Layne Hatcher. He has shown in his career the ability to have that game, and the Cardinals get a win. They then will have a chance to get a second win against Eastern Michigan. If the defense can slow down Samson Evans, they will get a win. If not, it is a loss. Even with a loss, there are four more wins available, starting with Central Michigan. Central Michigan lost too much on defense to keep up in this game.
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After the Bowling Green game, in which the Cardinal defense will not be able to contain the Bowling Green receivers, they will need three wins in the last three games. Northern Illinois and Kent State will be the first two. These two teams may end up being two of the worst in the MAC, and while Northern Illinois will have a solid running back, the rest of the team around him will not be enough for a win. This leaves the Miami (OH) game as the must-win to get to a bowl game. Last year it was a one-point loss that ended Ball State's chances for a bowl. Ball State has lost three straight to Miami (OH), and all by a touchdown or less. The streak ends here and Ball State is bowling.
Why Ball State Can Not Win 5.5 Games
Like many of the other MAC teams, a slip-up in a game in which they are favored will end their hopes of the over-hitting. The first spot that could happen is against Indiana State. The last time these two teams faced, Indiana State took a seven-point win over Ball State in 2014. That is the last time Ball State lost to an FCS school, and Cade Chambers could give Indiana State a chance in this one. He was the Freshman of the Year in the Missouri Valley Conference last year. He finished tenth in FCS in yards per completion and was a dual threat at times as well.
Ball State under Mike Neu has also relied heavily on the run. Western Michigan will have one of the best-run defenses in the MAC this year. If they can force Ball State to go through the air, they have solid defensive backs who can make plays and create turnovers. Ball State struggled last year against the run. They do not have a large defensive line with enough size to stop a quality running back. There are two potential games this could show up in. First is Northern Illinois. Ontario Brown is a top-quality running back, and against Eastern Michigan, Samson Evans is the best in the MAC. Facing the two best running backs in the conference could spell doom for Ball State.
Finally, there is Miami (OH). Miami (OH) has narrowly won the last three meetings between these two teams. Last year, the Ball State defense fell apart against the backup quarterback. If Brett Gabbert is playing, this one will not be nearly as close.
Final Ball State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Ball State has only won six games six times since the year 2000. Brady Hoke led them to a seven and 12-win season at the end of his tenure. Then Pete Lembo got them to years of nine and ten wins. Under Mike Neu, they have done it twice. In 2020, Ball State went 7-1, and then in 2021 won six games. Ball State's history shows there are major peaks and valleys for this program. Mike Neu may have hit his peak in the Covid season. After a 1-3 start, Ball State beats Central Michigan and Kent State and finishes the season 3-9.
Final Ball State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 (-142)
