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Mid-week MACtion continues as Ball State faces Northern Illinois. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Ball State-Northern Illinois prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Ball State comes into the game at 2-7 after falling by three last week to Bowling Green. After opening with losses to Kentucky and Georgia, they got their first win of the year against Indiana State. Then, it was four more losses, including to MAC foes Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo. They got their first win over an FCS team when facing Central Michigan. While they did give up the first points of the game following a turnover, Ball State would hold on to win 24-17. Last time out they fell to Bowling Green. Ball State was down at the half but tied it up, and then tied it again in the fourth quarter, but Bowling Green would kick a field goal to win the game with just three minutes left.
Northern Illinois comes into the game at 4-5 on the season. After pulling an upset of Boston College to open the season, NIU lost four straight games. Northern Illinois was upset by Southern Illinois in the second game of the season, before falling to Nebraska and Tulsa. In conference play, they have been better. They lost a close game to Toledo, before beating Akron, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan. Last time out, they would face Central Michigan. Northern Illinois would be down 37-11 in the third quarter but scored three straight touchdowns to make it close, falling 37-31.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ball State-Northern Illinois Odds
Ball State: +10.5 (-115)
Northern Illinois: -10.5 (-105)
Over: 43.5 (-105)
Under: 43.5 (-115)
How to Watch Ball State vs. Northern Illinois Week 11
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Ball State Will Cover The Spread
Kiael Kelly has not been the starter all year but may have secured his spot last time out. Ball State has used three different quarterbacks this year, trying to find a spark. On the year, Bowling Green sits 124th in total offense, and 129th in the NCAA in scoring this year. They are also 123rd in passing this year. On the year, Kelly has completed just 33 of 66 passes for 300 yards and no touchdowns. Last time out, it was just 66 yards, but no turnovers through the air or turnover-worthy passes.
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It was Kelly's work on the ground that may have secured the job for him. He ran for 99 yards in the game, the third time in four games he has run for 99 or more yards. Further, he scored twice in the game, still, he did have two fumbles in the game. Meanwhile, Marquez Cooper is the team leader on the ground, and the only running back over 100 yards this year. He has run 146 times for 674 yards this year. Most of his yards have come after contact, with 517 yards. He has also scored three times this year.
The receiving core is led by Qian Magwood. He has brought in 34 of 48 targets this year for 309 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Tanner Koziol, the tight end, is the only player with more than one touchdown receiving. He has two this year, with 242 yards receiving this year. Finally, Ahamad Edwards has been stepping up, he has 250 yards on the season with a score as well.
The Ball State defense has allowed 28.44 points per game this year, ranking them 90th in the nation. Overall, they are solid in yards given up though. They are 47th in the nation, allowing just 351.3 yards per game. The run defense is solid, ranking 31st in the nation. They are led by Cole Pearce who has 29 stops for offensive failures this year, with 34 total tackles. His average depth of tackle is sitting at just 2.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. In the passing game, they rank 67th. The pass rush does have 23 sacks this year with 118 quarterback pressures. That is led by Sidney Houston Jr. He has eight sacks this year with 29 pressures. Meanwhile, they have allowed 16 passing touchdowns this year while coming away with just three interceptions this year.
Why Northern Illinois Will Cover The Spread
Rocky Lombardi leads this Northern Illinois offense this year. He has been solid for the Huskies this year. He has completed 139 of 239 passes this year for 1,657 yards and nine scores. Still, he has not been careful with the ball this year. Lombardi has five interceptions and 12 turnover-worthy passes. Lombardi has been doing better at taking care of the ball, but the turnovers returned last time. He threw an interception and also had a fumble. Further, he has two turnover-worthy passes. Still, he threw for 292 yards and a season-high three touchdowns.
Antario Brown is the leading back for Northern Illinois this year. He has run 137 times this year for 843 yards on the season. Brown has scored seven times this year and has been great after contact. While he has 6.2 yards per carry this year, he has 3.53 after-contact while forcing 27 missed tackles. Last time out, he was a workhorse. He ran 22 times for 167 yards while getting great blocking. He has over five yards before first contact on average in the game. It was his third game this year over 150 yards on the ground.
In the receiving game, three different receivers have over 200 yards receiving this year. Trayvon Rudolph leads the way, with 392 yards this year and two scores. He has been great after the catch as well, with 250 yards after the catch. Kacper Rutkiewicz missed the last game but could be back for this one. He has 319 yards this year and he has scored twice this year. The tight end Grayson Barnes is third on the team with 291 yards this year with three touchdowns.
Northern Illinois ranks 25th in total defense. The defense against the pass has been great. In the year, NIU is fifth in the nation against the pass. Northern Illinois has 22 sacks this year with 135 quarterback pressures on the pass rush. Devnote O'Malley has five sacks this year with ten total pressures. Meanwhile, Roy Williams and George Gumbs are tied for second on the team. Williams and Gumbs both have four sacks on the season. In coverage, Nate Valcarcel has been great. He has three interceptions and has allowed just one touchdown this year. Overall, NIU has eight interceptions and allowed eight passing touchdowns,
Final Ball State-Northern Illinois Prediction & Pick
Ball State is currently 0-5 against the spread on the road this year. The major issue has been scoring. Scoring is going to be hard to come by for them in this game. The weak point of this NIU defense is the run game, but Ball State struggles to run the ball. Further, NIU can create turnovers, and Ball State readily gives them away. While 10.5 is a lot of points, the Northern Illinois defense will make this attainable. Take the Huskies in this one, with the under.
Final Ball State-Northern Illinois Prediction & Pick: Northern Illinois -10.5 (-105) and under 43.5 (-115)
