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The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Michigan Wolverines. Check out our Big Ten Championship odds series for our Purdue Michigan prediction and pick.
The Michigan Wolverines have transformed their identity and their season. That's what happens when Michigan beats Ohio State, but more than that, it's what happens when 11-0 Michigan beats 11-0 Ohio State in Columbus to reach the Big Ten Championship Game for the second straight year. Michigan-Ohio State always matters, but it has mattered more for Michigan in recent years because of the long dry spell the Wolverines endured against the Buckeyes from 2012 through 2019, and on a larger level from 2004 through 2019. Michigan did not win a single game from 2012 through 2019, and it won only once from 2004 through 2019 (with no game played in 2020 due to the pandemic). Coach Jim Harbaugh lost his first five games against Ohio State. He badly needed to escape the long shadow cast by his rival. He hadn't reached a single Big Ten title game. He hadn't won a single Big Ten championship as a coach. He hadn't reached the College Football Playoff heading into the 2021 season and the 2021 game against Ohio State. Until Harbaugh solved that puzzle, his tenure at Michigan could not be called a success. All the money, effort and faith invested in him since he returned to his alma mater several years ago would not be rewarded until he beat Ohio State.
In 2021, he finally did it, and it was glorious for Harbaugh … but if it turned out to be one isolated win in a sea of defeats to Ohio State, it wouldn't be nearly as significant or as precious. Harbaugh needed to beat Ohio State again, and beyond that, he needed to win on the road in Columbus, something Michigan had not done since the year 2000. Do that, and it could clearly be said that Michigan was the best program in the Big Ten, the true dominant program which had displaced Ohio State as the ruler of the realm.
One week ago, that's what Harbaugh did. His Michigan men went into Ohio and won by 22 points, scoring 21 in the fourth quarter to drive a stake through the Buckeyes. Michigan is now one win away from consecutive Big Ten titles and College Football Playoff berths. In truth, Michigan is probably in the playoff even if it loses here to Purdue, but a win is valuable because it ensures avoiding Georgia until the national championship game.
Purdue is playing in its first Big Ten Championship Game. It's a great achievement to be sure, but it came more as a result of the Big Ten West Division being weak than the Boilermakers being excellent. Purdue lost four games, but Iowa lost to Nebraska on Nov. 25 to hand the Boilermakers a huge opportunity. Coach Jeff Brohm's team didn't waste that golden chance against Indiana on Nov. 26. It took care of business and won the Old Oaken Bucket to punch a ticket to Indianapolis. Purdue, which knocked off two top-five teams last season, will try to do the same in this game.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Purdue-Michigan Big Ten Championship odds.
Big Ten Championship Odds: Purdue-Michigan Odds
Purdue Boilermakers: +16.5 (-110)
Michigan Wolverines: -16.5 (-110)
Over: 51.5 (-110)
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Under: 51.5 (-110)
Why Purdue Could Cover the Spread
The Boilermakers know how to pull off upsets of top-five-ranked opponents. This is their Super Bowl. They will be very fired up. They just need a good start. If they get that, they could be off to the races.
Why Michigan Could Cover the Spread
Michigan is a much, much better team than Purdue. The Wolverines should physically manhandle the Boilermakers in the trenches. They crushed Iowa in last season's Big Ten Championship Game. The talent disparity with Purdue is similarly large this year.
Final Purdue-Michigan Prediction & Pick
Michigan will romp to a big win. The Wolverines are full of confidence after beating Ohio State and are much more likely to play well than an inconsistent Purdue team is.
Final Purdue-Michigan Prediction & Pick: Michigan -16.5
