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The Buffalo Bills have nothing to play for in this game, and in theory, neither do the New England Patriots. The Bills will be the second seed in the AFC regardless of the results on Sunday, and the Patriots need to lose if they want to guarantee the first overall pick in the draft. Four teams have three victories this season, and five teams have just four victories, meaning the Patriots could severely hurt their draft position if they win this game. The Bills have a laundry list on their injury report, and it wouldn't be surprising if most of their first-stringers sit out of this game. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Bills-Patriots prediction and pick.
Bills-Patriots Last Game – Matchup History
The Bills and Patriots will play for the second time in three weeks in Week 18. In Week 16, New England visited Buffalo and nearly upset the division leaders, losing 24-21 as 14-point underdogs. The Patriots are happy they didn't pull off that upset, considering their place in the draft order going into Week 18.
The Patriots took an early 14-0 lead 16 minutes into the game, but the Bills rallied back to secure a 17-14 lead in the third quarter. Buffalo added to their lead with a defensive touchdown in the fourth before Drake Maye threw a touchdown pass to bring the game within a score. It was too little too late for the rookie quarterback, as the Bills escaped with the victory. It was the Bills' eighth win in their last ten matchups with the Patriots.
The Bills are happy to narrow the gap in the head-to-head, as the Patriots have historically dominated the franchise. However, Tom Brady's era was challenging for the Bills, as he routinely defeated them in the 2000s and 2010s.
Overall Series: Patriots 78-51-1
Here are the Bills-Patriots NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Bills-Patriots Odds
Buffalo Bills: -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -150
New England Patriots: +2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +125
Over: 38.5 (-110)
Under: 38.5 (-110)
How to Watch Bills vs. Patriots
Time: 1 PM ET/10 AM PT
TV: CBS
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Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread/Win
How hard will the Patriots work to win this game? The Bills have some talented second-stringers who can win this game, and they could have some motivation to make an impact despite the Bills having nothing to play for. The Patriots don't exactly have a home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium this season, owning a 1-6 record, which is worse than their record on the road.
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread/Win
In a disappointing couple of years for the Patriots, it wouldn't be surprising if they found a way to win this game and ruin their chances at the first overall pick. The Patriots need some help in their secondary and the wide receivers room, allowing them to take advantage of a rare opportunity. Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter would be the perfect fit for both needs for the Patriots. However, according to their injury report, the Patriots will play most of their first-stringers, and they'll have a massive talent advantage against whatever the Bills roll out on the field.
Final Bills-Patriots Prediction & Pick
The effort and talent on the field will be reminiscent of a Week 1 preseason game. The Bills second-stringers could have some motivation to make an impact on the coaching staff, while the Patriots have already checked out and have no reason to lose the first overall pick in this matchup. It'll be an ugly game that could go either way, but we'll take the Bills to find a way.
Final Bills-Patriots Prediction & Pick: Bills -2.5 (-115)
