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The Toronto Blue Jays look to avoid being swept as they take on the Houston Astros Wednesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Blue Jays-Astros prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Blue Jays-Astros Projected Starters
Bowden Francis vs. Ryan Gusto
Bowden Francis (2-2) with a 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 23.0 innings pitched, 8 walks, 20 strikeouts, .200 oBA
Last Start: vs. Seattle Mariners: Win, 6.0 innings pitched, 5 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
Away Splits: 2 starts, 0-2, 4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.0 innings pitched, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts, .225 oBA
Ryan Gusto (2-1) with a 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 17.0 innings pitched, 3 walks, 17 strikeouts, .273 oBA
Last Start: vs. San Diego Padres: Win, 5.0 innings pitched, 9 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts
Home Splits: 4 games, 2 starts, 1-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 13.0 innings pitched, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts, .315 oBA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Astros Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -104
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: -112
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How to Watch Blue Jays vs. Astros
Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40 PM PT
TV: MLB Network
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Blue Jays Will Cover The Spread/Win
Bowden Francis has been very good for the Blue Jays. He does an awesome job limiting hits, he attacks the zone, and he can usually command his pitches pretty well. Houston, on the other hand, has struggled to hit. They are in the bottom half of the league in batting average, and they have the fifth-lowest OPS. Additionally, the Astros have scored the ninth-fewest runs in the MLB. If Francis just pitches his game, the Blue Jays will be able to win this game on the road.
Toronto is 11th in the MLB in batting average, and they have the fifth-fewest strikeouts. They are putting the ball in play, and they are getting some hits when they do that. However, the Blue Jays have to be better at hitting with two outs. They have given away some at-bats, and it has hurt them in the long run. Rya Gusto has given up a few more hits as a starter, so Toronto is going to get their chances in this game. If they can take advantage of those chances, the Blue Jays will win this game.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros have dominated this series. They pitched a shutout in the first game on Monday, and they followed that up by allowing just one run on Tuesday. Houston has allowed just four total hits while striking out the Blue Jays 18 times, and walking them only three. Their pitchers have been at the top of their game this series, and they need that to continue. If the Astros can have another good day on the mound, they will win at home.
Houston should be able to get to Francis a little bit. His advanced stats indicate that he has gotten a little bit lucky. The right-hander is in the 31st percentile or less in xBA, xERA, average exit velocity, chase percentage, whiff percentage, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage. He is allowing opponents to put the ball in pay hard off him, and it is going to end up hurting him. If the Astros can hit the ball hard in this one, they will scratch across some runs Wednesday night.
Final Blue Jays-Astros Prediction & Pick
The Blue Jays are in a big slump, and I am expecting that to continue. I will take the Astros to win straight up.
Final Blue Jays-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros ML (-112)
