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Opening Day should be a national holiday. The San Diego Padres welcome the Atlanta Braves back to Petco Park, where they eliminated the ATL in the 2024 Wild Card. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Padres prediction and pick.
The Braves will be a great team once again this season. The injury bug caught them at a terrible time last year, and as a result, they were short-handed for the postseason. The Friars took advantage of that. The Braves didn't have CY Young winner Chris Sale, 2023 MVP winner Ronald Acuna Jr., or 2023 All-Star Spencer Strider. Sale will start on Opening Day, but they will be without both Strider and Acuna Jr. for the beginning of the season. The Braves are expected to be a playoff team once again and could win the NL East Division.
The Padres were playing great baseball before they collapsed against the Dodgers in the NL Division Series last season. They did not score a run in the final two games. Since then, the Padres have lost Jurickson Profar to the Braves and Kyle Higashioka to the Texas Rangers. The lineup contains new players. Joe Musgrove will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Despite this, the Friars should remain a competitive team again this season with a good chance to make the postseason.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Padres Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -122
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: +104
Over: 6.5 (-124)
Under: 6.5 (+102)
How to Watch Braves vs. Padres
Time: 4:10 ET/1:10 PT
TV: MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
Chris Sale will toe the slab for the Braves after an incredible season a year ago. He won the most games in a season of his career with an 18-3 record. He added a 2.38 ERA, 6.2 WAR, 1.01 WHIP, 225 strikeouts, and only 39 walks in 533 innings. The 35-year-old southpaw will deal with some elite hitters against left-handed pitching. He will need to be cautious facing Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and potentially Yuli Gurriel. If he is successful against those hitters, then Sale will pitch at least six innings to give his team a shot at stealing a win on Opening Day in San Diego.
The lineup will look a little thin to begin without Acuna Jr. out there. Furthermore, catcher Sean Murphy is also on the IL, and top prospect Drake Baldwin will begin the campaign as the starting backstop. Profar should lead off with stars Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson following. Similar to the Padres, the Braves are top-heavy. Those players must show up and provide the scoring to give the team a shot at covering the run-line. Outfielders Michael Harris II and Bryan De La Cruz can be very good hitters as well.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Pitching for the Padres will be Michael King, who started Game 1 against the Braves in the 2024 Wild Card. He struck out 12 hitters on his way to a shutout performance. The former Yankee was one of the top strikeout pitchers in his first season in San Diego. He will now get the honor of starting on Opening Day as Yu Darvish is sidelined with an injury. Without Darvish for a while and Musgrove for the season, the rotation will be thin. Dylan Cease will start Game 2 and Nick Pivetta will start on Sunday Night Baseball. Outside of those three, the rotation is in need of another spark.
The Padres had a quiet offseason. They missed out on Roki Sasaki and were in talks to trade Dylan Cease but have yet to do so. With the way the rotation looks now, it would be a sign of selling if they were to get rid of Cease now. Offensively, the Padres added Gavin Sheets, Yuli Gurriel, Jason Heyward, and Martin Maldonado to the team. Those four will be the bench pieces and DH hitters for the Padres. Heyward will get starts in left field against right-handed pitching. Those are interesting additions to the lineup. After losing Profar, the Padres' lineup has some holes in it. They are going to need their stars to perform at a very high level.
Tatis Jr, Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez are the top four hitters in the lineup. After that, it's Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Gurriel, Heyward, and Elias Diaz. The bottom five hitters are all veterans. In reality, the only non-veteran may be their best hitter in Merrill. Manager Mike Shildt is relying on his vets to begin the season strong. They must attack Sale early and force him out of the game before the 6th inning to have a shot at covering.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick
Both of these starters have a chance at registering 8+ strikeouts in this game. It's a day game, but I think the offense stalls early, and it could be a slow-scoring game. The Padres cover the run-line at home by scoring a few runs late in front of a sold pout crowd.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres +1.5 (-184)
