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The Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins close out their three-game series with a Wednesday evening matchup. The Marlins won the first game on Monday 3-2, earning their fifth victory in six games. The Brewers haven't been in good form, losing three of their last four games after dropping two of three in their previous series against the Astros. The Brewers maintain a 1.5-game lead in the National League Central, while the Marlins are dead last by six games in the National League East. After an improbable run to the playoffs last season, the Marlins are back in the basement and have given themselves a near-insurmountable deficit, sitting 18.5 games back of the Phillies. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Brewers-Marlins prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Freddy Peralta is in line to get the start for the Brewers. Peralta has been in poor form as of late for the Brewers, allowing five earned runs in two of his last five starts. Peralta's 4.17 ERA puts him at No.4 on the list for Brewers starters, but his 6.19 ERA over his last three starts is concerning for Milwaukee. The Brewers need Peralta to give them a chance to win when he's on the mound, which he hasn't done in two of the last three.
Jesus Lazardo has cleaned up his act for the Marlins after some questionable starts to begin the season. Lazardo went on the 15-day injured list after his April 20th start with left elbow tightness and has been lights out since returning. Lazardo pitched 11 2/3 innings over those two starts, allowing two earned runs and striking out 15.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Marlins Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+116)
Moneyline: -144
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline: +122
Over: 7 (-122)
Under: 7 (+100)
How to Watch Brewers vs. Marlins
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
We don't know the result of Tuesday's game between these teams, but the Brewers couldn't have been happy with their performance in Game 1, which makes me believe they could win the next two games. The Marlins have been one of the league's worst teams all season, and despite their recent run, the Brewers need to be able to beat teams like this to stay on top of the National League Central.
The Brewers have been performing well against left-handed pitching over their last ten games, owning a .341 on-base percentage and 8.4 runs/nine.
The Brewers also have a big advantage with their bullpen. Milwaukee's bullpen has a 2.56 ERA this season, while the Marlins have a 3.33 overall but an ERA near four over their last three games. Neither of these pitchers may make it too far in this game. The Brewers will win if it becomes a battle of the bullpens.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Freddy Peralta's form over his last five starts will give the Marlins a chance in this game. The Marlins have a .333 on-base percentage and 4.9 runs/nine over their last ten games against righties. These numbers aren't as good as the Brewers against lefties, but it comes with a much bigger sample size.
Final Brewers-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Marlins won games in many ways during this recent run, but the Brewers may bring them back down to earth to end this series. The Brewers shouldn't be dropping two of three games to the Marlins if they are serious contenders.
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Final Brewers-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Brewers ML (-144)
