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We're back with yet another betting prediction and pick for the upcoming UFC Edmonton Main Card as we turn our attention towards this next bout in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Fellow Brazilian prospects will meet as Caio Machado takes on Brendson Ribeiro in a competitive showdown. Check out our UFC odds series for our Machado-Ribeiro prediction and pick.
Caio Machado (8-3-1) is still searching for his first UFC win following an 0-2 start. Following his contract-winning effort on Dana White's Contender Series, Machado has been on the wrong end of unanimous decisions to Mick Parkin and Don'Tale Mayes. He looks for a much-needed win as the betting favorite. Machado stands 6'4″ with a 78-inch reach.
Brendson Ribeiro (15-7) is also 0-2 to start his UFC tenure following a win on DWCS. After a TKO loss to Mingyang Zhang, he lost his most recent bout to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov by majority decision and he'll be looking to finally cash in on his opportunity while overcoming the betting odds. Ribeiro stands 6'3″ with an 81-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Edmonton Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Edmonton Odds: Caio Machado-Brendson Ribeiro Odds
Caio Machado: -148
Brendson Ribeiro: +124
Over 1.5 rounds: -175
Under 1.5 rounds: +135
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Why Caio Machado Will Win
Caio Machado comes into this fight following two losses as he couldn't do enough to get the nod on the judges' scorecards. Despite his four career wins by knockout, it marked his third-straight bout that saw the distance and it'll be interesting to see if he plans to go all three rounds once again in this fight. He's a very skilled boxer and fights with precise combinations to the head and body. He takes some time to settle into a striking rhythm, but he's more than capable of finding his groove and putting a massive volume of strikes on his opponent.
Caio Machado throws a blistering 6.07 significant strikes per minute while defending 63% of the shots coming back his way. His size is often an issue for opponents as he's capable of walking through their offense and absorbing their strikes. While he's struggled against opponents of similar size, he should have a slight edge in strength and defending takedowns opposite of Ribeiro.
Why Brendson Ribeiro Will Win
Brendson Ribeiro also struggled to open his UFC tenure and he'll have to strengthen his fundamentals if he wants to see sustained success. He's a skilled boxer just like his opponent, but he packs the much harder punch and is known for his nine wins by knockout. He lacks the volume that Machado throws with, but it's partially because he knows it'll only take him one clean shot to get the job done. Ribeiro will have to work on his output during this one and needs to avoid letting Machado get ahead of him on the scorecards early.
Ribeiro can win this fight if he doesn't waste any time in pressuring Machado and landing his punches first. We've seen Machado struggle when his opponent takes the first step in initiating the striking exchanges, so Ribeiro should look to be proactive in throwing his combinations and shelling up during returns. He'll also have the better arsenal with his jiu jitsu, so don't be surprised if he attempts to take this fight to the mat.
Final Caio Machado-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick
We'll have another banger on our hands as both men will be looking for their first official UFC win. Caio Machado has seen the distance in his last three fights and he should have the slight advantage if he sees a similar story during this one. Brendson Ribeiro is the more talented finisher and if he doesn't hesitate to bring the action to his opponent, he should be able to notch a finish during this fight.
Still, Caio Machado is very skilled in throwing a high volume and still slipping punches in the process. Despite his losses, he doesn't take a ton of damage during his fights and he's likely to win by decision if he's able to get ahead on the scorecards early.
However, you have to like the close betting odds here as I believe we're getting a good price for Brendson Ribeiro. He improved greatly following his first fight and given his ability to knock opponents out, we favor his upside in finishing this fight. It won't be easy to reach Machado's chin, but I expect Ribeiro to find the target and finish this fight with a bang. Let's roll with the underdog to take the win in this one.
Final Caio Machado-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick: Brendson Ribeiro (+124)
