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The countries that were expected to make the finals of the 2023 FIBA World Cup are instead going to fight for the bronze medal as the United States and Canada square off for third place this Sunday. Check out our FIBA World Cup odds series for our Canada-United States prediction and pick.
Canada's Cinderella run in the 2023 FIBA World Cup came to an end on Friday as Serbia took them down in the semi-finals with a 95-86 victory. The Canadians trailed for most of the game and never really had a chance to mount a comeback as the Serbians held them at bay until the final buzzer. The team was led by RJ Barrett, who scored a team-high 23 points on 8-of-14 shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who entered this game averaging 25.0 points, finished with just 15 markers as the Oklahoma City Thunder star struggled with foul trouble through the early goings of the game.
Meanwhile, the United States saw their gold medal hopes crumble right before their eyes as Germany pulled off the 113-111 upset at the Mall of Asia Arena on Friday. After taking a one-point lead at halftime, Team USA fell by double-digits in the second half as the Germans put together a 35-24 third quarter. The United States was able to valiantly make a comeback and even cut the lead to as low as a point before Andreas Obst and Dennis Schroder made some clutch buckets down the stretch to secure the upset for Germany. Anthony Edwards led the way for Team USA with 23 points, while Austin Reaves added 21 points off the bench.
Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 FIBA World Cup Odds: Canada-United States Odds
Canada: +7.5 (-120)
United States: -7.5 (-106)
Over: 190.5 (-113)
Under: 190.5 (-113)
How to Watch Canada vs. United States
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+, Courtside 1891
Time: 4:30 AM ET/ 1:30 AM PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Canada Will Cover The Spread
Both teams will certainly enter this game with a ton of motivation. But for Canada, their motivation will stem from the fact that they can make history by securing a podium finish. Still, it will take a herculean effort on their part with a similarly motivated United States squad in their way.
Canada's advantage in this Bronze Medal match is that they have arguably the best player on the floor in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Though SGA had a bit of a letdown on Friday, we cannot discount the fact that he has absolutely dominated the 2023 FIBA World Cup. It's likely that the early foul trouble on Friday shook his rhythm a little bit, as he finished with just 15 points on 4-of-8 shooting. Despite the relatively quiet scoring afternoon, Gilgeous-Alexander still had his imprint on the game with nine assists and three steals.
RJ Barrett also came alive versus Serbia with 23 points, Dillon Brooks had a solid 16 points. Collectively, Canada shot just above 49 percent from the field and 37 percent from beyond the arc, which is decent. What killed them is Serbia's hot shooting. The Serbians made over 62 percent of their shot attempts and 9-of-20 from long distance. Canada must play way better defense on Sunday if they want to nab the bronze in this tournament.
Why the United States Will Cover The Spread
Talent-wise, the United States obviously still has the edge. While it's arguable that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may be the best player on the floor on Sunday and the MVP of this tournament, Anthony Edwards can go toe-to-toe with the Canadian superstar. Edwards almost carried Team USA on his back with a herculean effort against the Germans. But ultimately, the load just became too much to handle to come back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter.
The loss obviously stings and for a powerhouse program like the United States, anything less than a gold medal is a disappointment. There are also no such things as moral victories. Nonetheless, Team USA can draw positives from the fact that they shot over 58 percent from the field and 48 percent from downtown in the semi-finals loss. They were also laser-focused from the free-throw line, where they made 23 of their 24 foul shots.
Though they had just nine turnovers on Friday, some of them came during crunch time. Team USA had poor execution down the stretch and weren't particularly able to get what they wanted, which ultimately led to their demise in this tournament.
As mentioned, both teams will enter this game carrying a lot of fuel. While Canada's motivation may be more on their first podium finish ever, the United States is coming in with a lot of pent-up anger. Third place isn't going to be good enough for these guys. But if it's the best they can get, it's what they will take.
Final Canada-United States Prediction & Pick
It's hard to imagine the United States losing two games in a row, so I'd go with them to take the Bronze Medal. As mentioned, Team USA will use the loss as motivation and save themselves from the embarrassment of not getting a podium finish in the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
Final Canada-United States Prediction & Pick: United States: -7.5 (-106)
