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We're back for another prediction and pick for the final game of Sunday's FIBA World Cup slate. We head over to Group L for this close game between tournament favorites. Canada (3-1) will take on Spain (3-1) in a matchup between FIBA heavyweights – you won't want to miss this one! Check out our FIBA World Cup odds series for our Canada-Spain prediction and pick.
Canada comes into this game after suffering their first loss of the tournament to Brazil. It was a tough game for them by every stretch and they struggled mightily to shoot the ball successfully. It was the first sign of any weakness from Team Canada and they will hope to bounce back against the returning champs.
Spain comes into this game after also losing their first game of the tournament at the hands of Latvia. It was their lowest scoring performance throughout FIBA and it seemed as though Latvia wanted the win more. Still, Spain is in a great spot to repeat as champions this year as winning this game would do wonders for their confidence.
Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 FIBA World Cup Odds: Canada-Spain Odds
Canada: -6.5 (-104)
Spain: +6.5 (-122)
Over: 169.5 (-120)
Under: 169.5 (-106)
How to Watch Canada vs. Spain
Stream: ESPN+, Courtside 1891
Time: 9:30 a.m. ET/ 6:30 a.m. PT
*Watch FIBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Canada Will Cover The Spread
Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Canada had a pedestrian showing against Brazil and couldn't find much success scoring the ball. Lugentz Dort was the only other player in double figures as they got into foul trouble collectively as a team. They won't be able to afford sending Spain to the line as often with how well they shoot from the stripe. Look for Canada to be much more disciplined in their defense and not give in to Spain's attack on the rim.
To win this game, Canada will need to have success from the three-point line and hit on their open shots. They're the much faster and more athletic team in transition, so they should continue to push the pace and avoid playing with Spain in the half-court. If they can pick up their defense and force Spain to heave shots, they should be able to cover comfortable.
Why Spain Will Cover The Spread
Spain had similar troubles in their last loss as they tallied 24 total personal fouls as a team. It's hard to imagine that the same will be the case against Canada, but they'll have to focus on getting to the line instead of giving Canada easy points. They're the better team in half-court offense and will look to share the ball selflessly. Expect the Hernangomez brothers to have better performances this time around as they meet with their NBA counterparts.
To win this game, Spain will have to improve their numbers on the glass and slow the pace against Canada. Their roster isn't as quick, so slowing the game down could give them an opportunity to create shots and force Canada into foul trouble. Their shooting will have to improve from 39% last game and they'll need to bring their assist totals up as well.
Final Canada-Spain Prediction & Pick
This game will be decided by which team can control the pace of the game. For the prediction, let's go with Canada to cover the spread as their fast-paced offense will create problem for Spain late in the game.
Final Canada-Spain Prediction & Pick: Canada -6.5 (-104)
