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The MLB season continues as the Cardinals look to pick up the win on the road in New York when they take on the Mets in the third game of their series on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Cardinals-Mets prediction and pick.
Cardinals-Mets Projected Starters
Matthew Liberatore vs. Kodai Senga
Matthew Liberatore – (1-1) with a 3.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP
Last Start: Liberatore tossed six scoreless innings in a win over the Phillies on Sunday, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out seven.
2025 Road Splits: Sears has been better on the road to start the season, going 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
Kodai Senga – (1-1) with a 1.06 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP
Last Start: Senga tossed seven scoreless frames in a win over the Athletics on Sunday, allowing just four hits and two walks while striking out four.
2025 Home Splits: Senga was dominant in his only start at home this season, where he gave up no runs on five hits while striking out four through five innings against the Marlins.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Mets Odds
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +144
New York Mets: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -166
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
How To Watch Cardinals vs. Mets
Article Continues Below
Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
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Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Matthew Liberatore and the St. Louis Cardinals have a strong case to take down Kodai Senga and the New York Mets on Saturday. Liberatore has quietly put together a solid start to 2025, posting a 3.93 ERA and an impressive 0.98 WHIP with 18 strikeouts to just one walk over 18.1 innings. His command has taken a leap, and he’s shown the ability to keep hitters off balance by mixing his fastball, slider, and cutter effectively. Liberatore’s Statcast metrics show a drop in barrel rate and a rise in groundball percentage, both signs that he’s inducing weaker contact and limiting damage. With the Cardinals’ bullpen finding its rhythm and Brendan Donovan extending his hitting streak to 13 games, St. Louis is poised to support Liberatore with timely offense and late-inning relief.
While Kodai Senga is a formidable opponent, the Cardinals have the tools to challenge him. Senga’s high strikeout totals and recent dominance are well-documented, but the St. Louis lineup has shown resilience, with key hitters like Donovan and Nolan Arenado consistently reaching base. If the Cardinals can work Senga’s pitch count and capitalize on scoring opportunities, Liberatore’s improved command and ability to limit hard contact give St. Louis a real chance to outduel the Mets’ ace. Look for the Cardinals to rely on a balanced attack and a sharp outing from Liberatore to secure a statement road win.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kodai Senga and the New York Mets are well-positioned to secure a win over Matthew Liberatore and the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, thanks to a combination of strong pitching, a potent lineup, and home-field advantage. Senga has shown his ability to rack up strikeouts and limit damage, giving up no runs with eight strikeouts in his last two games. Backed by a Mets offense that’s firing on all cylinders, highlighted by Pete Alonso’s power and Juan Soto’s ability to drive in runs, the Mets have consistently put pressure on opposing pitchers, as evidenced by their recent 5-0 and 4-1 victories at Citi Field. The Mets have also been highly effective as favorites, winning nearly 77% of games in that role this season.
On the other side, Liberatore has his fair share of ups and downs to start the season, carrying a 3.93 ERA and allowing 17 hits and eight earned runs in just 18.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals’ offense has been inconsistent, and while Brendan Donovan’s hitting streak is a bright spot, it hasn’t translated into enough run support. With Senga’s strikeout ability and the Mets’ lineup depth, New York is primed to take control early and keep the Cardinals at bay for another home victory.
Final Cardinals-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Mets and Cardinals clash at Citi Field in a matchup that favors New York both statistically and by recent form. Kodai Senga enters with a sparkling 1.06 ERA and 16 strikeouts over his first three starts, including a dominant seven-inning shutout in his last outing. The Mets’ pitching staff has been among the league’s best, boasting a 2.30 team ERA and a strong home record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offense has been inconsistent, managing just one run and three hits in their last game, and their pitching has struggled with a 9.00 ERA from recent starters. Expect Senga and the Mets to control the tempo, ultimately prevailing in a low-scoring contest.
Final Cardinals-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets ML (-166), Under 8.5 (-118)
