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Carlos Alcaraz takes on Tommy Paul at Wimbledon. Our Wimbledon odds series has our Alcaraz Paul prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Alcaraz Paul.
The 2024 Wimbledon Championships move into the quarterfinals. Carlos Alcaraz is one win away from the semifinals, where he could potentially play Jannik Sinner in what would be a blockbuster matchup. Obviously, Alcaraz has to tend to his business just as Sinner has to take care of his job, but it's hard to ignore the possibility of another clash between the two best young players in men's tennis — not the two best players overall (since Novak Djokovic exists), but the two best players under age 23. Alcaraz and Sinner are poised to create the next great rivalry in men's tennis, and each time they can meet at a major tournament, it will add another chapter to their growing story. First things first, though: Alcaraz has to fight his way through Tommy Paul.
The verdict on Alcaraz through four match wins at Wimbledon this year is that he is getting the job done but is not fooling anyone. He has been erratic. He has not played with maximum intensity or flawless consistency. Alcaraz has played at least one very spotty set, if not two, in each match he has played. He has gone through a lot of ups and downs. He has rescued himself each time he has struggled, but he has struggled several times and has not had a clean, dominant match yet in this fortnight. Did the French Open take a lot out of him? Is he not as hungry for this Wimbledon title since he won here a year ago? Is he distracted by the fact that the Paris Summer Olympics are just around the corner in a few weeks? All of that is speculation, but there are bread crumbs of logic which tell you that there are reasons Alcaraz isn't maxing out and playing his absolute best tennis. We're all wondering if Alcaraz will finally put forth his best stuff, now that the Sinner semifinal and a run at the Wimbledon title are coming into focus.
Here are the Carlos Alcaraz-Tommy Paul Wimbledon odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Wimbledon Odds: Carlos Alcaraz-Tommy Paul Odds
Game spread
Alcaraz -5.5: -110
Paul +5.5: -122
Money line
Alcaraz: -420
Paul: +315
To win first set
Alcaraz: -215
Paul: +174
Total Games In Match
Over 38.5: -110
Under 38.5: -120
Alcaraz over 20.5 games: -120
Alcaraz under 20.5 games: -110
Paul over 17.5 games: -120
Paul under 17.5 games: -110
How To Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN Plus
Time: Approx. 10 a.m. ET / 7 a.m. PT — match could start 45 minutes earlier or later depending on length of previous match
*Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Carlos Alcaraz Could Cover The Spread
Alcaraz hasn't consistently covered spreads at this Wimbledon tournament, but one gets the sense that he has conserved energy in Week 1 and that he is saving up for Week 2. If that is true, we're about to see Alcaraz significantly raise his level of play. Assuming he does, he can take off in this match and give Tommy Paul a thrashing. Alcaraz can smell the title now. He knows he needs to enter a possible Sinner semifinal in good form. He will sharpen up and polish his game here against Paul.
Why Tommy Paul Could Cover The Spread
Alcaraz remains erratic. He has not covered the spread in three of his four Wimbledon matches thus far. Paul is a solid top-20 player. He should be able to keep this match close enough to cover.
Final Carlos Alcaraz-Tommy Paul Prediction & Pick
We have continued to be wrong about Alcaraz. Now we think Paul is going to cover … but our official recommendation, again, is to pass on Alcaraz matches. They have become notoriously hard to bet on.
Final Carlos Alcaraz-Tommy Paul Prediction & Pick: Paul +5.5 games
