The time has finally come for the UFC Rio de Janeiro Main Event taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division. Former champion and Brazil's favorite No. 4 Charles Oliveira will take on Poland's rising contender No. 8 Mateusz Gamrot in what should be a classic matchup. Check our UFC odds series for the Oliveira-Gamrot prediction and pick.
Charles Oliveria (35-11) has gone 23-11-0-1 inside the UFC en route to one of the more dominant title runs we've seen in the Lightweight Division's history. Following his most recent loss to Ilia Topuria in a title opportunity, Oliveira will be tasked with one of the rising talents of the division in Gamrot. Oliveira stands 5-foot-10 with a 74-inch reach.
Mateusz Gamrot (25-3) has gone an impressive 8-3 inside the UFC while steadily climbing the rankings. After losing a split decision bout to Dan Hooker in a “Fight of the Night” effort, Gamrot bounced back with a dominant win over L'udovit Klein. Now, he'll look to notch the biggest win of his pro career over a former champ. Gamrot stands 5-foot-10 with a 70.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio Odds: Charles Oliveira-Mateusz Gamrot Odds
Charles Oliveira: -112
Mateusz Gamrot: -108
Over 3.5 rounds: +100
Under 3.5 rounds: -130
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Why Charles Oliveira Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ilia Topuria – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 21 SUB
Charles Oliveira looked to be in great shape and even better spirit heading into his title bout with Ilia Topuria, but clearly Topuria was on another level with his power and quickly finished Oliveira. While he's faced some setbacks over the last few fights, Charles Oliveira is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC and will once again have the stern grappling advantage over his opponent here.
Oliveira's striking has been somewhat inconsistent compared to what it was during his championship run, but he'll certainly have to lean on some of his power if he wants to damage a durable fighter like Gamrot. Oliveira should make use of the front kick as he usually does, forcing Gamrot to drop his hands and defend the body shots.
Ultimately, Oliveira won't be able to wait around for Gamrot to throw his offense because he'll slowly get ahead on the scorecards with takedowns and intermittent strikes. Oliveira should look to be the aggressor and should also be constantly chasing submission attempts whenever Gamrot decides to grab a hold of him.
Why Mateusz Gamrot Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) L'udovit Klein – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Mateusz Gamrot continues to prove himself as a serious contender in this division, easily beating a streaking prospect like L'udovit Klein his last time out. Much has been said about Gamrot's level of competition up to this point, but he owns key wins over Arman Tsarukyan, Rafael Fiziev and Jalin Turner – he's certainly ready for a former champion and will have a 50/50 chance in this fight according to the betting odds.
Gamrot is one of the best pure wrestlers in this division and there aren't many fighters on the roster he isn't able to take down. With his takedowns, Gamrot does a tremendous job of keeping opponents pinned on the ground while he lands strikes, quickly piling his numbers on the striking totals. He doesn't give opponents any room to breathe as constant pressure will be the name of the game in this one.
Gamrot will obviously have to be wary of Oliveira's submission attempts, but he's shown strong defense throughout his career with no submission losses on his record. He's certainly fit to go all five rounds and a longer fight could even favor his momentum if he's able to get out in front early.
Final Charles Oliveira-Mateusz Gamrot Prediction & Pick
Fans will be treated to another high-level Main Event as former champion Charles Oliveira returns home to defend his ranking against Poland's Mateusz Gamrot. Both men are some of the more dominant grapplers in this division and while Oliveira is able to submit anyone from anywhere, Gamrot's willing to put his fearless style up against anyone in the UFC.
Ultimately, I think Mateusz Gamrot will be strong in the striking exchanges, but he may do too much in terms of clinching and grabbing a hold of Charles Oliveira. Oliveira can take the back and chase submissions from anywhere, so I expect Gamrot's aggressiveness to ultimately be his demise in this fight.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Charles Oliveira to get the win as this fight should be tailor-made to his style. With the pressure Gamrot puts on opponents both ont he ground and on the feet, Oliveira is bound to eventually find a submission and end this fight.
Final Charles Oliveira-Mateusz Gamrot Prediction & Pick: Charles Oliveira (-112); OVER 3.5 Rounds (+100)
