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It's time for another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Kansas City Prelims as we take a look at this upcoming bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Colorado's own Chris Gutierrez will face off against Minnesota's John Castaneda in a can't-miss scrap on the early portion of this card. Check the UFC odds series for our Gutierrez-Castaneda prediction and pick.
Chris Gutierrez (21-5-2) comes into this fight with a 9-3-1 mark in the UFC since 2018. He rode one of the UFC's longest winning streaks upon his entry to the promotion, but has since dropped fights to top-level competition. Following his most recent victory over Quang Le, he'll look for another decision to go his way. Gutierrez stands 5-foot-9 with a 67-inch reach.
John Castaneda (21-7) comes in with a 4-3 record inside the UFC since 2020. He's gone 3-2 over his last five bouts, but he's looking to avenge a 1-2 record in his last three following losses to Daniel Marcos and Daniel Santos. He'll be the short betting underdog here looking to make a name against his toughest opponent yet. Castaneda stands 5-foot-6 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Kansas City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Kansas City Odds: Chris Gutierrez-John Castaneda Odds
Chris Gutierrez: -142
John Castaneda: +120
Over 2.5 rounds: -410
Under 2.5 rounds: +290
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Why Chris Gutierrez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Quang Le – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Chris Gutierrez is feeling the sting of two losses over his last three appearances following a 7-0-1 start to his UFC career. He's built a name for himself with his technical striking and boasts some of the cleaner boxing with the division. He's also a monster with his low leg kicks and has been known to alter the course of fights when landing those cleanly. He follows strikes up with boxing combinations up the middle and can quickly force opponents on their back foot if he begins to find success.
Chris Gutierrez is the much more polished striker during this matchup and if he's able to find a home in his straight jab, he's expected to give Castaneda problems all night. However, his chin isn't quite what it used to be and he'll want to avoid trading punches with Castaneda when possible. Gutierrez is more technical in clinch situations and as long as he can remain on his feet during this bout, we should see him cruise to a relatively sound decision.
Why John Castaneda Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Daniel Marcos – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
John Castaneda possesses a similar striking skillset to his opponent, but he's much more fluid with his movements and will bob his head to close the distance effectively. While he's more than capable standing and landing big shots, his true advantage during this fight will be in the grappling as he's much more dangerous in sinking submissions than his opponent. If Castaneda can improve his 35% takedown accuracy during this fight and find offense through there, he can certainly stand to steal a few rounds on the ground.
Castaneda has a tremendous gas tank and will be looking to push the striking pace throughout this fight. He throws at just about the same volume as his opponent, but Castaneda has the stronger chin and will be more willing to stand in the pocket and withstand damage. If this turns into a war of attrition, we've seen Castaneda come away the fresher fighter in similar spots, giving him a strong advantage the further this fight wears on.
Final Chris Gutierrez-John Castaneda Prediction & Pick
We should have another electric scrap on our hands as both men are known for their high-volume striking. Chris Gutierrez is the more technical kickboxer of the two and it'll be interesting to see how often he looks towards his low calf kick. John Castaneda is a skilled striker in his own right, but he has a clear advantage in the grappling here and could cause problems if he's able to find the back or top position.
Still, I think Chris Gutierrez is solid enough with his distance control to not allow any easy takedowns to Castaneda. He's also a sound enough grappler to get back to his feet, so I don't expect Castaneda to neutralize him on the ground in this one. Ultimately, I see Gutierrez landing the more consistent strikes and maintaining his forward pressure through three rounds, so we'll roll with the slight betting favorite for our final betting prediction and pick.
Final Chris Gutierrez-John Castaneda Prediction & Pick: Chris Gutierrez (-142)
