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These two teams are desperate for a win because each has had trouble finding much success in conference play. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Cincinnati-UCF prediction and pick.
Cincinnati is 12-9 this season, and they enter this matchup losing four straight. They have quality wins against Xavier and Dayton. They also have big losses against Villanova, Kansas State, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Utah, and West Virginia. Simas Lukosius is the lone reliable scorer. The Bearcats have had a bumpy season in Big 12 play, and a win in this matchup would go a long way for them to get back on track.
UCF is 13-8 and has lost two straight and four of their last five games. They have quality wins against Texas A&M and Texas Tech. They also have had notable losses in Wisconsin, LSU, Kansas twice, Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, and BYU. Keyshawn Hall is the best player on the Golden Knights, and they need him to take over against this Cincinnati defense at home. This would be a quality win and get UCF closer to the bubble.
Here are the Cincinnati-UCF College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Cincinnati-UCF Odds
Cincinnati: +2.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +128
UCF: -2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -154
Over: 145.5 (-115)
Under: 145.5 (-105)
How to Watch Cincinnati vs. UCF
Time: 5:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
TV: CBSSN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Cincinnati Will Cover The Spread/Win
Cincinnati's defense has been a huge strength in comparison to their offense. They allow 63 points per game, 40.9% from the field, and 31.5% from behind the arc. KenPom also rates the Bearcats' defense as the 15th-best in college basketball, with a rating of 94.2.
Down low, this frontcourt has been solid at best. Dillon Mitchell and Aziz Bandaogo have been a great tandem up front on defense. Mitchell leads the Bearcats with 6.8 rebounds per game and in steals with 1.5 per game. Bandaogo is the block leader with 1.5 per game.
Cincinnati's defense faces a difficult matchup against UCF's offense, but defense travels, and if the Bearcats can muddy this game up, then the game will change, even if it's on the road.
UCF's defense is probably the worst in the Big 12. They allow 78.8 points per game, 44.6% from the field, and 35.1% from behind the arc. Hall does everything for the Golden Knights because, from the wing, he leads the team in rebounds with 6.9 per game. The entire team also averages 37 rebounds per game.
Moustapha Thiam dominates the center position and leads the team in blocks with 2.5 per game. Three players average at least one steal, and Johnson is the best on-ball defender and leads the team with 2.5 per game.
The pieces on UCF should make for a good defense, but nothing has fit consistently. They get a good matchup against Cincinnati because their offense has had many different struggles.
Why UCF Will Cover The Spread/Win
UCF's offense has been one of the better units in the Big 12 this season. They score 79.6 points per game and have a 41.9% field-goal percentage and a 34.9% three-point shooting percentage. In KenPom, the Golden Knights have a top-50 offense. They have an adjusted offensive rating of 115.4, 49th in KenPom.
Three different Golden Knights are averaging at least 14 points in scoring. Keyshawn Hall is the most consistent scorer, averaging 18.1 points per game. Darius Johnson is then the team's assist leader, averaging 4.1 per game. The team also averages 14.7 assists overall. The Golden Knights can easily outscore the Bearcats, but if this game turns ugly and is played on Cincinnati's terms, then the offense will have many issues to get moving.
Cincinnati has been one of the worst offenses in the Big 12 this season. They score 72.4 points per game, have a field-goal percentage of 44.2%, and have a three-point percentage of 31.7%. They are also 165th in offensive efficiency, with a 107.2 rating on KenPom. Despite the offensive struggles, four Bearcats are averaging more than double digits in scoring this season, and Simas Lukosius is the scoring leader, averaging 12 points per game.
Jizzle James is the engine for this offense because he leads the team in assists with 3.9 per game. The team averages 14 assists per game, which is solid but far from impressive. This offense started strong initially but fell off a cliff, especially when the Big 12 play started. This matchup is interesting because this offense is not good, but UCF has the worst defense in the Big 12. If there's any defense that the Bearcats can take advantage of, it is this one.
Final Cincinnati-UCF Prediction & Pick
This is a battle of strength against strength. Cincinnati's defense and UCF's offense will decide this game. The Bearcats have completely spiraled and have not done much in Big 12 play to inspire confidence. In comparison, UCF has shown fight, taking Houston, Kansas, and BYU down to the wire. UCF wins and covers at home.
Final Cincinnati-UCF Prediction & Pick: UCF 2.5 (-120)
