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The Baylor Bears are set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Baylor Alabama prediction, odds, and pick.
The Baylor Bears briefly lost their way this season. They were the last unbeaten team in college basketball, but then they abruptly lost two straight home games to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Jeremy Sochan was injured and unvailable in each of those two games. He's only a role player, not a star, but college basketball odds evaluators would tell you he makes Baylor so much more cohesive. The Bears missed him.
Baylor also missed Arizona transfer James Akinjo, who gives this team needed scoring punch. The Bears' offense badly struggled for a short period of time, but the team was able to snap out of its funk and grab a crucial win at West Virginia which calmed everything down. The Bears more recently hammered Kansas State as though they intended to tell the Big 12 and the nation, “Hey, we're back. We're fine. It's still our world as defending national champions.” Keep this resurgence in mind when considering a Baylor Alabama pick.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are genuinely the most volatile and unpredictable team in college basketball odds discussions. That's no lie. It's not an exaggeration. Nate Oats' team has beaten Gonzaga in Seattle and lost to Georgia. The Tide have beaten Houston (when the Cougars still had Marcus Sasser and were a Final Four-level team) but lost to Missouri. They nearly got swept by Mizzou but rallied from 14 down to get a split with the Tigers. You simply never know whether you're going to get Good Bama or Bad Bama. That's the trick when making a Baylor Alabama prediction.
Alabama played great team defense last year. That has been the missing piece this year. Georgia was able to score in the 80s versus the Tide. That is hard to believe, but it actually happened. Missouri also took a blowtorch to Bama's defense when it beat the Tide a few weeks ago. That has to change if the college basketball odds are going to shift in this game against the defending champions.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Baylor-Alabama odds:
College Basketball odds: Baylor-Alabama Odds
Baylor: -3 (-106)
Alabama: +3 (-114)
Over: 150.5 (-110)
Under: 150.5 (-110)
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Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
The fact that Bad Bama shows up so often means that even though Good Bama is capable of emerging in this game, you might not see the Tide play their best for 40 minutes, maybe only 25 or 30. Alabama will need 40 complete minutes, and this team just isn't showing the discipline which suggests that is likely to happen.
Why Alabama Could Cover the Spread
The Tide are erratic and not dependable, but they get up and play very, very hard against elite teams. They beat Gonzaga in Seattle, in what was essentially a road game. They beat Houston. They took No. 1 Auburn to the wire before losing by only four points. The game was tied with nearly a minute left in regulation. Alabama's loss to Georgia was surely a product, at least in part, of looking ahead to this game against Baylor. No, Alabama isn't trustworthy, but the other side of the coin is that you get the best version of this team against the best opponents. Bama plays to the level of the competition, good or bad.
Final Baylor-Alabama Prediction & Pick
Alabama will play hard and will make this a battle, but the Tide are too unreliable this season, and Baylor plays much better team defense. Trust the champions on the road.
Final Baylor-Alabama Pick: Baylor -3
