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The Michigan State Spartans take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Armed Forces Classic. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Michigan State Gonzaga prediction and pick.
The college basketball season began on Monday, Nov. 7, but Friday, Nov. 11 feels like the real opening day, with showcase games such as this one on the schedule. There are a lot of storylines attached to the day's featured attraction. Let's get right to it:
The first and biggest story in Michigan State-Gonzaga is the fact that the game will be played outdoors on an aircraft carrier. Yes, this is an attempt to revive the aircraft carrier college basketball season opener. This has been done several times before. Notably, some attempts to play games on aircraft carriers have not gone well. Condensation on the hardwood floor, due to outside weather conditions, has caused multiple games to be canceled over the years. We will see if this game goes off without a hitch, but that point aside, the fact that this game is being played in highly abnormal conditions means that a posted over-under total did not exist for this game early Friday morning. Wind and sun are now relevant considerations for the shooting background at this game, which will start just after 3:30 p.m. local time in San Diego.
The location of the game is the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, whose home is San Diego. We can evaluate the various players on these teams, but we have no idea how they will shoot against the backdrop provided by an aircraft carrier in outdoor weather.
Fortunately, the weather forecast seems ideal in San Diego this afternoon: partly cloudy (so maybe no sun in the eyes of shooters) with a high of 67 degrees. As the sun sets, the temperature should drop, but all things considered, that's as good as one could reasonably expect. Game organizers probably hoped the temperature would be seven or eight degrees warmer, but it's far from a worst-case scenario.
The other big storyline is that this is a very personal game for coaches Tom Izzo of Michigan State and Mark Few of Gonzaga. They both shared strong friendships with former Michigan State coach and 1979 national champion Jud Heathcote. Jud hired Izzo as an assistant and enabled him to take over in East Lansing when Heathcote retired. Heathcote lived in Spokane in his retirement, so Mark Few and Heathcote got to know each other well.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Michigan State-Gonzaga College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Michigan State-Gonzaga Odds
Michigan State Spartans: +11.5 (-115)
Gonzaga Bulldogs: -11.5 (-105)
Over: N/A
Under: N/A
Why Michigan State Could Cover the Spread
Gonzaga is probably a better team, but with the game being played on the deck of an aircraft carrier, who knows how any of the players will react? Gonzaga is favored by a double-digit margin. Given that the conditions could serve as a powerful equalizer, one could readily imagine that Izzo will pack in a zone defense and dare Gonzaga's shooters to hit 3-pointers in the outdoor environment. If Gonzaga can't get dunks or layups, it might struggle to score and MSU can keep it close.
Why Gonzaga Could Cover the Spread
The Zags are expected to be a top-line contender for the national championship once again. The fact that Drew Timme stayed in school for one more year makes him an instant contender for National Player of the Year. Timme is likely to be the best player on the floor. That matters.
Final Michigan State-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick
You should frankly stay away from this game, because the aircraft carrier experience is hard to predict on all sides. If you insist on a pick, take the underdog getting more than 10 points in an outdoor basketball game where shooting might not come easily.
Final Michigan State-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick: Michigan State +11.5
