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The Missouri Tigers are set to face the Kentucky Wildcats in the SEC season opener. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Missouri Kentucky prediction, odds, and pick.
Missouri has had a very rough season under coach Cuonzo Martin, as college basketball odds analysts are quite aware of. Missouri hasn't just lost; it has lost to UMKC. It hasn't just lost; it has been blown out by Kansas and Illinois, getting completely run off the court. Missouri, if it isn't already at rock-bottom, has fallen very close to it. The program which had Michael Porter for one injury-marred season and did not get the benefit of a full year with Porter was dealt a bad hand and has never seemed to recover from that stroke of awful luck. Nevertheless, Martin is under fire and has to find something to reverse this downward spiral. Winning in Rupp Arena against Kentucky would certainly fit the bill. Missouri has occasionally shown it is capable of doing something significant on the court. The Tigers scrambled from an early deficit to beat SMU this season, but that kind of comeback has been rare in a journey full of setbacks and stumbles.
Speaking of setbacks and stumbles, Kentucky has gone through a lot of them this season, but the Wildcats show signs of being able to regroup and put the pieces together. John Calipari, as is well known by anyone contemplating a Missouri Kentucky pick, needed shooters and scorers this season. He got C.J. Fredrick of Iowa and Kellan Grady of Davidson in the transfer portal. Fredrick, though, got injured, which immediately put a crimp in Kentucky's plans. The Wildcats lost to Duke in their season opener. Much more alarmingly, they lost to a not-very-good Notre Dame team.
However, if you are thinking about a Missouri Kentucky pick, realize that the Wildcats have scored 95 or more points in their last two games, hugely impressive routs of North Carolina and Western Kentucky. Keep in mind that Western Kentucky beat Louisville. WKU is not a bad team. Has Kentucky figured things out on offense? The college basketball odds for this game would say so, yes.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:
College Basketball odds: Missouri-Kentucky Odds
Missouri: +20.5 (-110)
Kentucky: -20.5 (-110)
Over: 140.5 (-110)
Under: 140.5 (-110)
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Why Missouri Could Cover the Spread
The Tigers beat SMU and showed in that game that they could take punches, fall behind, and rally. They also have to believe that Kentucky isn't going to score in the 90s for a third straight game. Kentucky's offense was laboring for much of the season, and it has to be said that North Carolina's defensive effort against Kentucky on Dec. 18 was embarrassing. Missouri did recently get blown out by Illinois in the annual “Bragging Rights” game, but Illinois got on a big run from 3-point range in that game. The Illini were launching flamethrowers and uncorked a 21-1 run at one point. That was more about Illinois being great than Missouri being bad. Kentucky would have to play at a very high level to cover.
Why Kentucky Could Cover the Spread
The reality is that Missouri is terrible and might have only 15 to 20 good minutes in this game. Kentucky should be able to pull away over 40 full minutes. We don't have to make a Missouri Kentucky prediction more complicated.
Final Missouri-Kentucky Prediction & Pick
It's clear that Missouri is a total mess. Take Kentucky at home and watch the lead steadily grow.
Final Missouri-Kentucky Pick: Kentucky -20.5
